U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are expected to have indirect and manageable effects on Greece, primarily through reduced exports to the U.S. market, which may decline by 2.5% this year.
The framework agreed between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump for EU–U.S. trade relations this past Sunday introduces a new reality for Europe broadly—and for Greece in particular.
Exports Could Drop by €1.4 Billion in 2026
The anticipated drop in Greek exports is estimated at €1.4 billion in 2026, which corresponds to roughly 2.5% of Greece’s annual exports.
According to sources familiar with the European Commission’s negotiations with the U.S., the direct and indirect blow to the Greek economy is projected to range between 0.5% and 1% of GDP in 2025—that is, about €1–2.1 billion.
In 2026, economic growth is expected to be impacted by 0.2% to 0.4%, and in 2027 the effect will be minimal—between 0.05% and 0.1%. Over the three-year period, the total cost could reach up to €3 billion, depending on the scenario.
Tariffs Hit Exports
Assuming that the announced measures as of last Sunday night are implemented, despite several unresolved issues (e.g., timing of tariffs on pharmaceuticals), Greece is expected to suffer losses not only in exports directly to the U.S., but also in exports to other countries that eventually re-export to the U.S.
The €1.4 billion drop in exports forecast for 2026 will affect around 2.5% of Greece’s annual export volume.
Products likely to be hit include pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, industrial materials, and tech equipment. In particular, olives, olive oil, feta, and peach compotes are food products with high exposure to the U.S. In 2024, the U.S. absorbed 26% of Greek olive exports. Generic pharmaceuticals and industrial goods are also expected to see changes in U.S. demand.
Although there has been talk of exemptions for specific products, sources note that the negotiations are quite difficult, with the American side showing little concern over whether Greek products—even those with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO)—make it to their market. Their argument: there are alternatives, and they can produce these products themselves.
Setback to Growing Trade
In any case, the tariffs will halt the upward trend of European and Greek exports to the U.S. in recent years. According to the 2025 Annual Report of the Economic and Commercial Affairs Office of the Greek Embassy in Washington, bilateral trade between Greece and the U.S. grew by 26.3% in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching €4.57 billion. Tariffs will also affect key services such as transport and tourism.
Source: Premium edition of “TA NEA”
