Morningstar DBRS has left its forecast for Greece’s economic growth in 2026 unchanged at 2%, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while slightly trimming its 2027 outlook to 1.8%.
In an update to its baseline macroeconomic scenarios, the ratings agency said the projections reflect current market consensus, drawing on the median estimates of a broad range of external analysts. It cautioned, however, that the ultimate impact on growth and inflation remains unclear, with most forecasters yet to make substantial revisions.
Recent updates to projections have been mixed, the agency noted, as escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have pushed energy prices higher, disrupted transport and infrastructure in the Middle East, and brought geopolitical risks back into sharper focus.
At the same time, central banks are now signaling a more hawkish stance than previously expected, with interest rate expectations rising across Europe and Asia. In several major economies, this shift is attributed to resilient labor markets and persistently elevated core inflation. Prolonged energy supply constraints could lead to slightly higher rates and potentially prompt fiscal measures to cushion the impact.
Despite a series of global shocks, overall forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain broadly stable compared with earlier estimates. Growth projections for major European economies are still clustered around 1% or lower, while Spain continues to outperform at about 2.2%. Modest upward revisions are seen for China and India, Japan is expected to grow around 0.8%, and U.S. growth forecasts have been nudged higher to 2.5%, even after weaker-than-expected GDP data at the end of 2025.
