Greece’s economic expansion is expected to moderate slightly in the coming years, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on consumer spending and financial support from EU funds gradually tapers off, according to EY’s latest European Economic Outlook.
Economic activity in 2025 remained resilient, with GDP rising 2.5% in the final quarter and annual growth reaching 2.1%. The expansion was broad-based, supported by private consumption, investment, and exports, signaling a gradual shift toward a more balanced growth model. Household spending was bolstered by rising employment and incomes, reflecting continued labor market normalization.
Inflation, while above target, stayed relatively stable throughout the year, averaging 2.5% and ranging between 1.9% and 3.1%. Price pressures were driven mainly by services and food, while lower energy costs helped contain overall inflation. In February 2026, inflation ticked up to 2.7% year-on-year, as increases in food and hospitality prices outweighed the dampening effect of cheaper energy.
Outlook for the Greek Economy
GDP growth is projected to hold steady at 2.1% in 2026, remaining above the eurozone average, with investment—driven by ongoing NextGenerationEU (NGEU)-funded projects—acting as the main engine of expansion. Private consumption is expected to ease slightly as the Middle East conflict pushes up prices, while the investment-led pattern of growth will likely boost imports, limiting the contribution of net exports despite stable export performance.
From 2027 onward, growth is set to gradually normalize as investment momentum softens with the completion of NGEU programs. Still, Greece’s improving fiscal position is expected to create room for targeted measures to cushion energy costs for households and businesses, support domestic demand, and co-finance new investments, helping offset the slowdown in EU-funded activity.
Inflation is forecast to rise to around 3.0% in 2026, largely due to higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Although core inflation is expected to ease, it will likely remain above 2% amid persistent pressures in services.
A reversal in energy price shocks should bring inflation down to 2% in 2027, albeit temporarily, before it picks up again in 2028, mainly due to higher energy costs associated with the rollout of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2).
