Greece’s state budget recorded a primary surplus of €2.99 billion in January–February 2026, significantly exceeding the official target of €1.96 billion and slightly above the €2.8 billion posted in the same period last year, according to preliminary finance data.
The stronger-than-expected performance underscores continued fiscal discipline, even as tax revenues fell short of projections and investment spending lagged.
Budget Balance Beats Expectations
On a modified cash basis, the overall state budget balance showed a surplus of €898 million, compared with a forecast deficit of €97 million for the period. That marks an improvement from a €709 million surplus recorded in early 2025.
After adjusting for delayed payments — including €126 million in defense programs, €591 million in public investment spending and €200 million in other capital transfers — the primary surplus exceeded budget targets by €117 million.
Officials note that cash-based results differ from fiscal outcomes and reflect only central government performance, not the broader general government, which includes local authorities and social security funds.
Tax Revenues Miss Target
Tax revenues reached €11.47 billion, falling €386 million, or 3.3%, short of targets. The shortfall was largely driven by weaker-than-expected collections from energy-related taxes, including value-added tax (VAT) and excise duties.
- VAT revenues totaled €5.49 billion, exceeding targets by €351 million. Excluding a one-off concession-related item, VAT receipts were €45 million above expectations.
- Excise taxes came in at €869 million, missing targets by €223 million.
- Property taxes totaled €177 million, slightly below forecasts.
- Income taxes reached €4.39 billion, €90 million under target, with stronger personal income tax offset by weaker corporate and other income tax receipts.
One-Off Boost From Highway Concession
January revenues included transactions linked to the long-term concession agreement for the Egnatia Odos highway, a major northern Greek transport corridor.
The deal generated €306 million in VAT revenue, which was recorded and then refunded, and the same amount was booked again under sales of goods and services. These flows had no net fiscal impact but inflated headline revenue figures.
Spending Underruns Support Surplus
Total state budget expenditures came in at €11.09 billion, €1.12 billion below target, reflecting both delayed payments and lower-than-planned investment outlays.
Regular budget payments were €217 million under target, mainly due to postponed defense and capital transfer payments. Public investment spending reached €875 million, undershooting projections by €906 million and declining sharply from the same period in 2025.
At the start of the fiscal year, government entities typically prioritize clearing outstanding obligations from previous years, which can affect the timing of new spending.
Mixed Revenue Picture
Net state budget revenues totaled €11.99 billion, €127 million below target.
Other revenue categories showed mixed performance:
- Transfers declined by €201 million versus targets, largely due to lower inflows in the Public Investment Program.
- Sales of goods and services, excluding the highway concession, exceeded expectations.
- Other current revenues also came in above target.
Revenue refunds rose to €1.47 billion, exceeding projections by €300 million, mainly due to the VAT refund linked to the Egnatia concession.
February Snapshot
In February alone, net revenues reached €5.85 billion, falling €162 million short of monthly targets. Tax revenues were slightly below expectations, with continued weakness in excise duties offsetting stronger VAT performance.
