Greek inflation stood at 3.3% in March, according to the EU’s statistical authority, Eurostat, remaining steadily above the Eurozone 2.5% average. Meanwhile, its energy inflation shot to 7% in the same month, on a year-on-year basis, compared to the Eurozone average of 4.9%.
The disparity is particularly worrying, as the full impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East has yet to be factored in.
In its analysis, French multinational bank Société Générale (SocGen) warns that the escalation in the conflict effectively eliminated any possibility of a smooth normalization. SocGen does not rule out a $ 150-per-barrel Brent price in a worst-case scenario, a development that would result in an even higher inflation rate in Greece.
The Greek parliamentary budget office released a revised trimester report, upping its inflation forecast to 4%. The office changed its 2026 projection for costs to 3.5-4%, in lieu of its initial 3%, including the new variables such as energy and fertilizer costs that are expected to affect agricultural production.
Unprocessed food prices also continued to climb sharply, up 9.2% in March, while processed food rose just 0.3%. Services inflation stood at 3.8%, the food, beverages and tobacco category at 3.5%, and non-energy industrial goods at 0.1%. Core inflation in Greece reached 2.7% in March.
At the eurozone level, energy was also the main driver, surging 4.9% in March after a 3.1% decline in February, though the pressure has not yet spread to other sectors. Unprocessed food rose 4.1%, easing slightly from 4.6% in February, while core inflation edged down to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Real Wages Failing to Keep Pace
The Greek inflation data come at a difficult moment for households. Private debt is rising and real wages are not keeping up with nominal gains — or are barely rising at all — according to a joint report by IOBE and CEPAL.
While the minimum wage is set to rise from Wednesday, April 1, and will have increased more than 40% in nominal terms since 2019, a detailed analysis in the report shows that in real terms the minimum wage grew by just 13.4% over the 2019–2025 period — underscoring the extent to which inflation has eroded purchasing power gains.
