Greek-Turkish relations are heading toward dangerous tension following diplomatic provocations and a serious airspace incident. Athens responded forcefully by issuing a formal diplomatic note to Ankara, rejecting as illegal Turkey’s unilateral declaration of two Turkish “marine parks” in international waters and on Greece’s continental shelf in the Aegean. The Greek side made clear that these moves, which advance the revisionist “Blue Homeland” doctrine, create no legal fact on the ground.
At the same time, Turkish provocation shifted to the field on Friday morning. A Turkish drone violated Athens FIR south of Alexandroupoli and entered the terminal airspace of the local airport. Air defense responded instantly, with two Greek F-16s scrambling immediately. Given the seriousness of the incident, a civilian flight that was in the process of taking off at the time was urgently instructed to change altitude, preventing any possible crossing of paths without putting passengers at risk.
As is now clear, the “calm waters” have turned stormy, with relations between the two countries firmly in a phase of controlled but visible escalation. Turkey is gradually moving into the final stretch of institutionally and legislatively cementing its revisionist “Blue Homeland” doctrine. This development, expected to form the legal basis for challenging sovereign rights within the Greek and Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zones, creates an explosive backdrop in the Eastern Mediterranean, sharply raising the odds of a real-world flashpoint.
Amid this charged environment, Athens shows no sign of backing down even slightly from its strategic plans. The top priority is completing the seabed survey, followed by laying the undersea electrical interconnector cable that will link Greece with Cyprus and Israel. According to cross-checked information, Athens and Paris are in complete coordination. The two sides have drawn up a joint, step-by-step operational and diplomatic plan aimed at leaving Ankara no room whatsoever for reaction or misinterpretation.
Regarding Turkish leaks and indirect threats suggesting Athens must seek Turkish permission before work can proceed east of Kasos, based on international law and the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the legal framework Greece and France consistently follow, there is no scenario in which Athens, Paris, or the French company handling the project would recognize Turkish jurisdiction. As a result, they will not be approaching Ankara for the relevant Navtex.
The Navtex will be issued solely by the competent Greek authorities, since this maritime zone clearly falls under Greek jurisdiction. The same sources note that the relevant notice to mariners is already being prepared and will be formally issued in the coming weeks, since the French company will carry out the necessary cable-laying work before the end of the year. To maintain formal procedure and prevent Ankara from claiming it was caught by surprise, the only step under consideration is a simple, routine notification from the French company to Turkish authorities, one that carries no element of recognizing Turkish jurisdiction.
Three-Year State of Alert
Athens remains on maximum alert, given that Turkey may attempt to create facts on the ground within the next three years, before completion of the “Shield of Achilles,” an advanced anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic, anti-drone, anti-ship, and anti-submarine defense dome, expected in 35 months. Until then, assessments suggest Turkey may seek to provoke incidents in the Aegean.
At the same time, Athens remains in constant contact with Paris. On September 9-10, the French capital will host the International Space Summit, co-chaired by France and Germany, with the possibility open that Kyriakos Mitsotakis will attend, since the summit could also serve as an opportunity for a new meeting between the Greek prime minister and the French president.
