The global economy is expected to maintain its resilience and growth momentum in 2026, despite mounting geopolitical pressures and a resurgence of trade protectionism, according to a new report by INSETE titled “Developments in the Global Economy and in the Countries of Origin of Inbound Tourists to Greece.”
The outlook is supported by a mix of counterbalancing forces: expansionary US fiscal policy, gradually easing interest rates, and stronger consumer spending driven by rising stock markets. Together, these factors are expected to guide markets toward gradual normalization in 2026.
Despite concerns over financial imbalances and rising European defense spending amid geopolitical tensions, the main source markets for Greek tourism remain resilient. A projected 4.5% drop in energy prices — lowering transport costs — combined with faster investment through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, underpins cautious optimism for inbound tourism economies.
Resilience Amid Protectionism
According to INSETE, 2025 saw US tariffs climb to levels not seen since the 1950s, with duties on Chinese imports reaching 37.1%. Despite this, global trade grew 3.6% and the world economy 3.2%, supported by rising stock markets, a weaker dollar, and expansionary US fiscal policy.
Major economies outperformed expectations — China 5.0%, the US 2.0%, EU-20 1.3% — while both China and the EU-20 increased exports to the US, highlighting the resilience of global trade under protectionist pressures.
Diverging Fortunes Within Europe
Within Europe, economic performance in 2025 revealed significant divergences. Ireland led the way with robust growth of 14.2%, followed by Cyprus at 3.7% and Spain at 2.7%. By contrast, Europe’s largest economies posted far more modest gains: Germany grew by just 0.2%, France by 0.57%, and Italy by 0.5%.
The uneven trajectory across the continent illustrates the varied capacity of European economies to navigate a complex global landscape — one shaped by trade realignments, fiscal stimulus, shifting monetary conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty.
