Coffee prices could follow the dramatic collapse seen in the cocoa market, industry experts warned at the National Coffee Association’s annual convention in Tampa. Analysts say high retail prices are cutting demand, echoing trends that drove cocoa prices down over 70% since their 2024 peak.
Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, said, “I would be shocked if it did not happen. I do think coffee is the new cocoa,” citing parallels in price curves for arabica coffee and cocoa. Cocoa soared above $12,000 per ton in December 2024 due to adverse weather in producing countries, only to crash when consumers cut back on luxury chocolate and makers reformulated products.
Similarly, arabica coffee surged after tropical weather disruptions and U.S. tariffs distorted trade. Prices hit a record in February 2025, but expectations of a strong recovery in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, have pushed prices downward this year.
Analysts Predict Sharp Declines
Garner forecasts coffee prices could drop to $2 per pound by year’s end, while Digby Beatson-Hird, a coffee analyst at Avere Commodities, expects a further decline to $1.80 per pound. Coffee closed at nearly $2.93 per pound on Tuesday, signaling potential for significant price corrections.
The high cost is affecting consumer behavior. A January poll of 1,500 Americans by the NCA found 61% have cut back on coffee spending—visiting cafés less, brewing at home, or switching to cheaper brands—though the overall number of coffee drinkers has remained stable.
Market Shifts Toward Cheaper Beans
Industry insiders report that premium arabicas, such as Colombian and Central American coffees, are losing market share, while more affordable robusta beans are gaining traction. Rabobank chief coffee analyst Carlos Mera noted that coffee demand stalled in 2025 after years of consistent growth, but he expects a modest 2% rebound in 2026 as falling prices reach consumers.
Despite Brazil’s record crop, analysts say the impact on prices may be limited. As reported in Reuters, Cleber Castro, a sales representative for Brazilian farms, explained that well-capitalized farmers may sell gradually to maintain stock, potentially preventing a sudden market flood.
