Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing one of the toughest moments of his long political career, according to a new Gundemar poll conducted across 60 provinces in Turkey. The survey shows Erdogan losing in every potential head-to-head scenario against the country’s three main opposition figures, with gaps as wide as 16 percentage points.
Specifically, Erdogan trails Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu by 11 points, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas by 16 points, and main opposition leader Özgür Özel by five points.
AK Party Falls Behind CHP
The poll also shows Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lagging behind the Republican People’s Party (CHP), marking a dramatic reversal after 22 years in power.
When respondents were asked, “If elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”, results were as follows:
- CHP: 35.83%
- AK Party: 30.95%
- DEM Party: 8.34%
- MHP: 6.39%
- Victory Party: 6.28%
- Good Party (İYİ Parti): 4.94%
- Yeniden Refah Party: 2.78%
- Anahtar Party: 1.47%
- TİP: 0.99%
- Others: 2.03%
Opposition Candidates Lead in Presidential Scenarios
In hypothetical presidential matchups, the results were even more striking.
- Ekrem Imamoglu: 55.58%
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 44.42%
The Istanbul mayor leads by more than 11 points — the largest margin recorded since 2019.
Meanwhile, Mansur Yavas scores an even wider victory margin:
- Mansur Yavas: 58.09%
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 41.91%
That 16-point gap makes Yavas the strongest potential challenger to the Turkish president.
Finally, in a direct race with the opposition leader:
- Özgür Özel: 52.31%
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 47.69%
Growing Pressure Ahead of Next Elections
The results underline mounting public dissatisfaction with Erdogan’s leadership amid persistent economic challenges and political polarization. For the first time in years, Turkey’s opposition appears to hold a clear advantage — signaling that the country’s next national elections could bring a major political realignment.
