The United States and Russia could be on the verge of a new nuclear arms race unless they reach a last-minute deal to extend the New START treaty, which is set to expire on February 5. The treaty, the last major arms control agreement limiting deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems, has been a cornerstone of nuclear stability for over a decade.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a one-year extension to maintain existing missile and warhead limits while negotiating a new framework. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has yet to formally respond, stating earlier this month that “if it expires, it expires” and advocating for a “better” replacement.
Arms control experts warn that the lapse of New START could remove critical constraints on long-range nuclear arsenals for the first time since the 1970s, forcing both nations to assume worst-case scenarios about the other’s capabilities. Without inspections and transparency measures, the risk of miscalculation and destabilizing competition could grow sharply.
The treaty caps each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers. Since New START was signed in 2010, Russia has developed new nuclear-capable systems such as the Burevestnik cruise missile, hypersonic Oreshnik, and Poseidon torpedo, which fall outside the treaty’s limits. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans a space-based “Golden Dome” missile defense system, raising concerns in Moscow about strategic balance.
China’s nuclear arsenal adds another layer of complexity. With an estimated 600 warheads now and projections of over 1,000 by 2030, Beijing remains outside the arms control framework that governs U.S. and Russian forces. A 2023 bipartisan Congressional commission described the U.S. as facing an “existential challenge” from two nuclear rivals simultaneously, recommending that strategic warheads in reserve be returned to active deployment if necessary.
The debate in Washington is sharply divided. Some arms control advocates urge Trump to accept Putin’s extension, citing the high costs of a new arms race—modernizing, sustaining, and operating U.S. nuclear forces could reach nearly $1 trillion by 2034—and the risk of escalating Chinese nuclear production. Others argue that Putin’s past suspension of inspections and Russia’s ongoing military aggression make an extension untrustworthy, emphasizing the need to bolster U.S. deterrence.
Experts estimate that if New START lapses, the U.S. could modestly increase deployed warheads, while Russia might add around 800. However, significant expansion would take at least a year to implement. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev described Trump’s unpredictability, warning that Russia is prepared to counter any new threats firmly.
