Fitch Ratings analysts assess that the Greek economy and its banking sector are showing signs of resilience despite the ongoing geopolitical volatility due to the war in the Middle East.
In an online seminar titled “Insights on Greece”, Fitch Ratings highlights the country’s strong growth rates compared to the EU average, with Greek banks maintaining robust performance despite a shift in the interest rate environment.
According to Emmanuel Bulle, Senior Director and Head of Research for corporates across Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia at Fitch Ratings, Greece has maintained average growth of around 2% since 2023, outpacing the broader eurozone, and is expected to hold that pace at least through 2027.
Speaking on the Greek economy’s trajectory, Bulle pointed to clear improvement in labor market conditions, while flagging persistent demographic headwinds compared to the early 2000s — a challenge he said makes expanding workforce participation an economic priority.
On the fiscal front, Bulle projected that Greece’s public debt would decline to around 140% of GDP by 2027, continuing a steady downward path. He described the country’s debt profile as particularly favorable, citing an average maturity of approximately 19 years, low borrowing costs and substantial cash reserves — factors he said significantly reduce market risk and provide a meaningful buffer against potential turbulence in bond markets.
Financing conditions have improved considerably in recent years, Bulle noted, even as the economy continues to carry the legacy of the debt crisis — most notably its still-elevated, though steadily declining, public debt load.
The Fitch official also expressed confidence that Greece’s growth momentum would prove durable beyond the expiration of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, with the economy continuing to expand at rates close to 2% even after that funding stream concludes.
