UBS remains firmly positive on Greek banks, arguing that their valuations remain attractive relative to European peers. The Swiss bank estimates an average 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4x for Greek lenders, compared with 9.5x for European banks overall—implying a 12% valuation discount.
UBS maintains a constructive stance on European banks more broadly, with Piraeus Bank ranked among its top picks.
In its latest review, UBS upgraded its price targets once again by 8–12%, with Piraeus offering the strongest upside potential. The bank trades on a 2027 P/E of 7.5x, with an average cost of equity of 13.1% and a medium-term return on tangible equity (ROTE) in the double digits.
UBS now sets its price targets at 10.20 euros for Piraeus Bank, implying 23% upside, 4.65 euros for Alpha Bank (17% upside), 4.60 euros for Eurobank (13% upside), and 17.20 euros for National Bank of Greece (17% upside).
According to UBS, Alpha Bank offers the strongest earnings-per-share growth but the lowest ROTE, while Eurobank stands out as an attractive regional growth story supported by successful acquisitions. National Bank of Greece, meanwhile, combines high profitability with a strong capital base and offers significant upside surprise potential in shareholder distributions.
UBS sees early signs of a recovery in Greek banks’ net interest income, citing November 2025 Bank of Greece data that point to an inflection in NII growth and stabilizing net interest margins. While corporate credit growth slowed to 6% year-on-year, UBS attributes this mainly to legacy loan write-offs rather than weaker demand.
The four largest banks are expected to post stronger performing corporate lending in Q4, up 10.4% year-on-year, and UBS anticipates the first quarter of sequential NII growth, underpinning its positive outlook for the sector.
