Anyone who remembers the NATO we once knew had best forget it. Brought into being in the post-war period by the Cold War, the North Atlantic alliance was a model of moderation, cohesion and effectiveness in its confrontation with the Soviet bloc.
It won. Victory was followed by its transformation into a peaceable organization which, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, expanded into Eastern Europe. It was now more of a bureaucratic regional structure than a war machine.
The primary pillar of the NATO to which we bid farewell was the US and its military capabilities. Tagging along, the European member countries got away with contributing as little as they could when it came to defense spending.
Of course, the free ride had to come to an end some time. Which isn’t a bad thing; quite the opposite, in fact. It is only logical that Europe should safeguard its own defense, rather than relying on third parties.
Except that this isn’t what the Trump administration is demanding. Washington is attempting to reduce its allies from sovereign entities into vassals and mercenaries. Which is exactly how it treats them in its dealings with Russia, its demands regarding Greenland, or a potential conflict with Iran.
I can’t imagine this came as a surprise to anyone. What kind of alliance could possibly accommodate a President who lacks any concept of alliances, or an internal compass of values or rules?
His personal universe distinguishes between “good people”—the “friends” who “support” whatever erratic whim pops into his head. Even if those friends happen to be Erdogan or Putin.
And the “others,” who do not support him or fail to flatter his ego enough to earn his approval. Even if they comprise the majority of Europe’s democracies, or Canada.
What sort of alliance could survive in such a universe? None.
And it will not survive, regardless of how many humiliating genuflections the NATO Secretary General performs for Trump.
But what can you expect from a Secretary General who claims he is ‘not a commentator’ when asked to weigh in on one member state (Turkey) threatening another (Greece) with war?
Who simply asks us to keep our voices down, in case anyone hears?
There is no doubt that Euro-Atlantic ties are robust and have weathered many a storm down the decades. Nor can there be any doubt that the “Trump era” won’t last forever.
But no one can predict the scars it will leave behind. Nor what kind of normalcy we’ll have when it’s finally restored.
In any case, the NATO we once knew is finished.
It remains to be seen what sort of alliance system will succeed it.
