Reasons, his erratic personality, his limited capabilities and above all, his dependence on Israel. He is cornered into a situation from which it is hard to escape in an easy and harmless way. Moving violently forward is dangerous, a compromised attack is admission of weakness and, retreating is impossible or perilous. A diplomatic breakthrough in the on going indirect negotiations between the USA and Iran in Geneva and Vienna, would be obviously the ideal solution to the crisis. However, the rigid red lines of both sides, related to the iranian uranium enrichment capabilities, the missile development rights, as well as Teheran’s external relations in the Middle East, make a diplomatic peaceful solution rather improbable.
Thus, it seems that president Trump has practically only two options. All-out attack (cases of Iraq 2003 and Libya 2011) or complete abandonment (case of North Korea 2019). Yet, any decision, whether to use force, in line with his repeated threats , or assume inaction, contrary to Israel’s inflexible posture, will finally degrade him irreparably. Both to friends and enemies of the USA and, above all, to the powerful operational arm of the American administration. Those who practically guarantee the military, industrial and technological interests of the country. The same ones that president Trump calls the hostile “American Deep State”.
Whatever choice the American president makes, he will ultimately face the resounding defeat of his bombastic declaration for a peaceful resolution of the Iranian crisis. Moreover, it will substantially harm American strategic interests – diplomatic, militatary and economic. Simply put, either outcome will be a presidential fiasco that, most probably, will this time have significant consequences for Donald Trumb.
Dr. Pantelis F. Ikonomou
frmr IAEA Nuclear Safeguards Inspector, ELIAM research associate
