How many students will Greece have in the coming years? The answer, according to Alexandra Tragaki, Professor of Economic Demography at Harokopio University in Athens, is sharply fewer. Speaking to To Vima, she warns that the decline in high-school students will become clearly visible around 2030–2032, triggering a 25%–35% drop in university entrants by 2050.
“The primary determinant of a student population is the number of births recorded 6 to 11 years earlier for primary schools, and 12 to 14 years earlier for lower-secondary schools (Gymnasiums),” she explains. The numbers paint a stark picture: births in Greece fell from 103,274 in 2000 to 68,309 in 2024—a drop of 34%. The overall trend has been downward, interrupted only by a brief rebound between 2004 and 2008.
The year 2008 marked the highest number of births in 21st-century Greece. By 2013, births had already fallen below 100,000, and since 2022 the country has been hitting a new negative record each year.
Where the Crisis Is Most Severe
While the decrease in births is nationwide, some regions are experiencing far steeper declines. Based on Professor Tragaki’s data for To Vima, 16 regional units saw birth rates fall by more than 44% between 2000 and 2024.
The hardest-hit include:
- All of Western Macedonia:
- Florina: –59%
- Grevena: –56%
- Kozani: –55%
- Kastoria: –49%
- Serres: –49%
- Evrytania: –56%
- Fthiotida: –45%
- Imathia: –44%
- Fokida: –44%
By contrast, only two regions saw an increase in births:
- Zakynthos: +3%
- Cyclades: +12%
Beyond Birth Rates: How Migration and Attainment Shape Classrooms
Birth numbers alone do not determine how many students end up in schools. As Professor Tragaki notes, migration—both international and internal—plays a significant role, as do educational participation and performance.
Over the last 25 years, the Gymnasium student population has fluctuated even more dramatically than births. From 2000–2010, the inflow of foreign nationals entering Greece boosted student numbers, while during the economic crisis years many Greek families emigrated, causing abrupt declines.
School numbers themselves shift as well. They depend not only on student population but also on policy decisions:
- maximum/minimum students per class
- mergers of schools
- criteria for suspending or reopening operations
She notes that after 2015, the number of schools began dropping more sharply.
A Decade Ahead: A One-Third Drop in Students
According to Tragaki’s projections for 2000–2024 and the decade ahead, the geographic disparities are striking. In the next ten years, Greece’s total number of Gymnasium students is expected to drop by about one-third.
Some regions will fare even worse:
- Western Macedonia, Epirus, and Thrace may see declines exceeding 40%.
- Attica, home to roughly one-third of the Greek population, will see a decline slightly below the national average.
- Most island regions will experience smaller decreases, often not exceeding 20%.
These figures, she emphasizes, make the timely redesign of Greece’s educational map not just important but urgent. Decisions must be made regarding which schools will merge or close and where local post-secondary “hubs” could be created to offer specialized training tied to each region’s economic strengths.
As a revealing indicator of the demographic crisis, she notes:
“The number of university entrants for the 2024–2025 academic year exceeded the total number of births in 2024.”
Rethinking Universities for a New Era
Turning to higher education, Professor Tragaki argues that Greek universities must undergo a structural redesign. Today’s academic geography—where schools and departments are scattered across dozens of cities—was created 30 to 40 years ago, with the goal of supporting local economies and expanding access to tertiary education during a period of rising student numbers.
“Today the picture is completely different,” she says.
While primary and secondary schools must follow demographic realities, university locations are not tied to local population size. This, she argues, opens the door to a rare opportunity.
“This moment is ideal for a meaningful structural reform: the creation of thematic hubs and clusters of specialization in different cities, tailored to each region’s characteristics and comparative advantages.”
Such a redesign could, she says, revitalize entire regions, turning them into leaders in specific scientific or technological fields and driving both regional development and decentralization.
