President George W. Bush convened the first G-20 leaders’ summit to respond to the 2008 global financial crisis. However, as economic and political turmoil has gripped the world in recent years, the forum has often been sidelined.
President Donald Trump, who will host the next summit in Miami this December, wants to bring the group back to its original purpose. To push that agenda, his administration is promoting a key ally, a nation not yet a permanent G-20 member but with influence in Europe far greater than its size: Poland.
Warsaw’s Economic “Miracle”
Poland has shaken off the constraints of its Soviet past to become one of the most impressive success stories in the world.
Over the past two decades, the country’s economy has doubled in size. With a gross domestic product exceeding 1 trillion dollars, Poland is expected to become the 20th largest economy in the world by 2028 and is already the sixth largest in the European Union, according to the Washington Post.
This year, the European Commission expects the country’s economy to grow by 3.5%, while neighboring Germany is expected to grow by just 0.6%.
The Challenges
Even so, Poland still faces challenges. Its GDP per capita remains below the EU average. The country continues to climb the economic ladder and needs to invest more in high tech sectors. Polish businesses “are not sufficiently integrated into high value innovation chains,” a recent European Commission report notes.
Even so, in a Europe often criticized for its slow pace of innovation, Poland stands as a model of growth, free market principles, and a democratic political framework.
As Trump refocuses the G-20 on its original mission of unleashing economic expansion, he is pushing for Poland to gain permanent membership in the weakened forum. Poland’s success “is proof that focusing on the future pays off,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in December, before declaring that Poland must “take its rightful place in the G-20.”
Trump’s “Diagnosis” of the G-20
Trump believes the G-20 is ailing, as its summits have turned into public relations events with agendas resembling NGO priorities (like poverty reduction) and little practical outcome.
While the presence of China and Russia, both seeking to reduce American power, makes meaningful progress difficult, the G-20 format remains useful. With the exception of Beijing and Moscow, nearly all members are US allies. That means the forum can help manage tensions by projecting a broad American consensus for a “free and open” global order.
With that in mind, Trump is steering the Miami summit toward economic growth, unleashing investment, energy security, and innovation in artificial intelligence. It’s a vision that can unite the majority of members and deliver the “new golden age” he has promised.
The Three Pillars of the Polish Alliance
Poland can help the Trump administration achieve these goals in three key ways:
First, while Western Europe’s major economies struggle under the weight of bloated welfare states and low innovation horizons, Poland is firmly focused on economic growth. Warsaw is being driven forward by a new generation of entrepreneurs eager to find opportunities in a shifting environment.
Second, Poland stands as a model in defense. The country has become one of NATO’s most ambitious members, outpacing many of the alliance’s older members. Warsaw already spends 4.7% of its GDP on defense and dedicates nearly 56% of its defense budget to equipment, more than any other NATO member. Poland has become indispensable to the alliance, has contributed enormously to European stability, and helps project the strength needed to deter Russia.
Third, Poland’s permanent inclusion in the G-20 would finally ensure that Central Europe is represented in the club. The region has grown into an economic force, and Poland, given its size and outlook, is its natural leader. In the Three Seas Initiative Summit Declaration issued in Dubrovnik, Croatia in April, the region’s leaders welcomed the strengthening of transatlantic ties and Poland’s participation in the G-20.
As host of this year’s G-20, the US has invited Poland to take a seat at the table that Washington denied to South Africa, an official club member whose economy has withered under widespread corruption and state interference.
Poland’s permanent inclusion in the G-20 would not be a “gift” to Warsaw, but a reflection of its hard earned place among the world’s leading economies. Poland is the ally Trump needs to keep the G-20 from giving in to its worst instincts.
