Global temperatures are expected to approach record levels over the next five years, according to a new report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Meteorological Office.
The annual climate outlook forecasts that average global surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
Researchers behind the report say there are now “very clear signs” that the planet continues to warm, with climate change driving increasingly extreme weather conditions worldwide.
The findings also warn that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 is highly likely to temporarily exceed the critical 1.5°C warming threshold established under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Scientists also expect one of those years to surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded globally.
Experts clarified that a temporary breach of the 1.5°C limit does not mean the Paris Agreement has officially failed, since the agreement refers to long-term average temperatures over two decades rather than a single year. However, researchers stressed that the closer the world moves toward the threshold, the more frequently it is expected to be exceeded.
The report highlights particularly rapid warming in the Arctic, where winter temperatures are projected to rise more than three-and-a-half times faster than the global average over the next five years. Arctic temperatures could climb by approximately 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average.
Scientists also predict continued melting of Arctic sea ice, particularly in regions such as the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.
According to the report, Arctic warming could disrupt global weather systems and contribute to more severe weather events, especially across northern regions of the planet.
The study forecasts wetter conditions across parts of the Northern Hemisphere during upcoming winters, including northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel region of Africa. In contrast, drier conditions are expected in the Amazon region during the May-to-September period.
Researchers also warned that a strong El Niño weather pattern could develop this winter and potentially continue into 2027. El Niño, caused by warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is known to push global temperatures even higher and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide.
