A new post by Donald Trump on Truth Social is causing reactions, with pointed jabs at Iran and a particularly aggressive tone.
The U.S. president claimed that Tehran “cannot be reasoned with” and “doesn’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal,” adding that it had “better get smart soon.” The message of the post was accompanied by the phrase “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”, reinforcing the sense that his stance is hardening.
What drew particular attention was the image accompanying the post, in which Trump is depicted holding a gun in front of a backdrop of explosions.
The post comes during a period of heightened tension in the Middle East, with the question of Iran’s nuclear program once again at the center of the international agenda.
Rejection of the Iranian Proposal
On Monday, Trump told his advisers that Iran’s three-step proposal, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and keep nuclear talks going through a final phase, proved that Tehran was not negotiating in good faith, according to the Wall Street Journal.
For now, Trump is comfortable with an indefinite blockade, which he wrote on Truth Social Tuesday is pushing Iran toward a “collapse situation.” A senior American official stated that the blockade is demonstrably crushing Iran’s economy, which is struggling to store its unsold oil, and has triggered a new approach from the regime toward Washington.
Trump’s decision represents a new phase of the conflict and underscores the fact that the president, who is always looking for a quick and easily “sellable” win, lacks a magic solution.
The Dilemma: Exit or Escalation?
A unilateral ceasefire would offer a quick way out of the conflict and relief for U.S. and global economies. But Iran’s proposal last weekend would have allowed Tehran to set the terms of that exit.
Resuming hostilities, meanwhile, would further weaken an already battered Iran, but Iran would likely respond by causing more damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, driving up the cost of the war. The blockade is draining the Islamic Republic’s finances, but it also ties American forces to a longer deployment in the Middle East, with no guarantee the regime will capitulate.
The Regime’s Resilience and “Maximum Pressure”
“Iran calculates that its ability to endure and circumvent the blockade exceeds the American interest in preventing a broader energy crisis and possibly a global recession,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert. “A regime that slaughtered its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardship on them now.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the U.S. has fulfilled the military objectives of Operation Epic Fury and that “thanks to the successful blockade of Iranian ports, the United States holds maximum leverage over the regime.”
Internal Disagreements in Washington
The lack of a clear path forward is leading some American officials to say the conflict will likely end neither with a nuclear deal nor a resumption of war. Trump is receiving conflicting advice: Senator Lindsey Graham is pushing to maintain pressure, while business leaders worry that a closed Strait of Hormuz will be a political “death knell” before the November elections.
Officials say Trump is not currently willing to abandon his demand that Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment for 20 years. “Why accept the Iranian deal when you’re still waiting to see if you can cause serious economic damage through the blockade?” said Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst.
The Role of the Hardliners
Despite hopes for talks in Pakistan, negotiations have stalled. On Monday, Iran requested time to consult with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Mediators remain skeptical, however, as both sides believe time is on their side.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted another difficulty: the internal power struggle within Iran. “The hardliners hold absolute power. Our negotiators aren’t just negotiating with Iranians — those Iranians then have to negotiate with other Iranians to figure out what they can agree to.”
