According to the POLITICO Poll, people in Western countries are increasingly of the opinion that we are heading towards the Third World War.
The poll was conducted on sample populations from the USA, Canada, UK, France, and Germany. The majority of respondents believe the world is becoming more dangerous. Crucially, American, Canadian, French, and British respondents believe World War 3 is seen as more likely than not within the next five years.
This is a sharp rise from when a poll was conducted on the same question in March 2025 by polling company Public First. Seb Wride, the head of Public First, said that this is due to the world becoming more unpredictable and the fact that “alliances are unstable“.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured) at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
Despite this, however, the POLITICO Poll also shows there is not great will in the Western public to make financial sacrifices to increase defense spending. Across the UK, France, Germany, and Canada, there is support to increase the defense budgets – but not when it comes as a result of cuts, more governmental debt, and tax raises.
The belief in the increase in the risk of global war is not unfounded. Russia’s war in Ukraine does not seem to be slowing down and an increase in US military interventionism in Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Nigeria under President Donald Trump combine to create a dangerous geopolitical moment.
43% of British respondents believed a new world war is either “likely” or “very likely” to happen by 2031 – an increase from 30% in March 2025. American respondents are even more likely to believe this with their number being 46% – up from 38% last year. Of the five countries, only Germans believe it is not likely in the next five years on balance.
At least 1 in 3 people in the US, UK, France, and Canada believe a nuclear weapon is either likely or very likely to be used in the next five years.
Russia is still seen as the biggest threat by European countries – whereas Canadians see it as the United States. Even the European countries put the United States as the second-biggest threat, well above China.
Kharkiv, Ukraine
