President Trump has said he would bomb much of the civilian infrastructure of Iran on Tuesday night if Tehran doesn’t, among other things, allow the Strait of Hormuz to open. He has set a tight deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time.
Trump has made numerous threats to Iran since the war began in late February. Sometimes he has followed through , and sometimes he has backed down.
Here are three ways the situation could play out ahead of the deadline, if past is prologue:
No action: This seems like the most unlikely scenario, as Trump has created this pressure point, and if he backs away he could lose leverage with Iran. Trump said Monday he was exploring the “concept” of a plan where the U.S. could charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, so that’s another door he is opening as part of a possible off-ramp. Looking at the way he has used threats in the past (with tariffs, for example), he rarely creates a deadline and then ignores it. That said, military strikes on the scale that Trump is proposing would be quite an escalation, and it’s unclear if the U.S. military and intelligence community have locked in on a way to make it happen.
“Deal” or “talks ”: Trump could announce that negotiators were making progress toward a deal, or that a limited deal had been reached. He therefore could either remove the threat of military action or push it back five or 10 days (it’s this type of “punt” that created the current deadline). There are a number of countries pursuing such an outcome, and Trump suggested on Monday that proposals were being shopped back and forth, which could be a prelude to a deal—though Trump said Tehran’s latest proposal was “not enough.”
Military strikes: Trump told the Journal’s Meridith McGraw on Sunday that Iran tries to “tap along” negotiators , always delaying talks, then never agreeing to anything. If he feels Iran is doing that again, it’s possible he would authorize military strikes shortly after the deadline. He could either go all-in, as he has suggested, or start with a series of escalatory strikes, trying to create more pressure on Iran and force them to the table.
