Vance or Rubio in ’28? It’s a Question Trump Can’t Stop Asking

WASHINGTON—Less than a day after the U.S. began bombing Iran, President Trump met with two dozen donors at his Mar-a-Lago club. As attendees dined on jumbo crab and rib-eye steaks, Trump asked the crowd: What do you think of JD Vance and Marco Rubio ?

The guests applauded louder for Rubio, according to people in the room.

The 2028 election is more than 2½ years away, but it is very much on Trump’s mind, as he casts about for a suitable heir to his MAGA empire. For months, the president has privately polled advisers, donors and friends about the political strengths and weaknesses of his vice president and secretary of state, pitting the two young, ambitious Republicans against each other—whether they like it or not.

Increasingly, Trump has shown fondness for Rubio, according to people who have spoken to the president, praising him in private and telling associates that he thinks the former Florida senator is electable. Trump’s second-term fixation on foreign policy has put Rubio, at the center of the administration’s most high-profile moves, and the president often turns to Rubio for advice, the people said.

Trump’s ultimate decision—advisers say he hasn’t yet made up his mind—will have monumental implications for the Republican Party, giving his chosen favorite the imprimatur of a president who remains deeply popular among conservatives. It will also define the conservative movement for a generation, elevating either the populist anti-interventionist ideas of Vance or the more hawkish foreign policy vision of Rubio.

Rubio has publicly and privately said he wouldn’t challenge Vance, who is widely seen as the front-runner should he decide to run for president in 2028, as expected. The two men are friends, according to people close to them. Polls show Vance as the early favorite to win the party’s nomination in 2028.

Spokespeople for Vance and Rubio declined to comment.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said Rubio, 54, and Vance, 41, are serving the administration equally well and that media speculation is divisive.

Trump continues to foment competition between Rubio and Vance, triggering bouts of tea-leaf reading in Washington and stirring up distrust among Vance and Rubio’s outside allies.

Vance’s supporters have alleged in recent months that right-wing influencers are being paid to criticize the vice president online. Donald Trump Jr. , the president’s son and an ardent Vance supporter, said in January that the alleged operation to undermine the vice president was “arguably the most obvious and flagrant operation I’ve ever seen in the history of social media.”

In the administration and among Trump’s most fervent supporters, two camps are forming.

Vance has the backing of Donald Trump Jr. and many powerful MAGA acolytes. Tucker Carlson is a friend. Erika Kirk, the widow of Charlie Kirk and head of the powerful conservative group Turning Point USA, has endorsed Vance for president, and the organization plans to use its state offices to boost him in early primaries. The endorsement was viewed as premature by some inside the White House, who felt the group got ahead of Trump.

As finance chair of the Republican National Committee, Vance has raked in cash for the party. Megadonor Jeff Yass, Palantir CEO Alex Karp and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance attended a fundraiser with the vice president that netted roughly $6 million. It was hosted by longtime Vance adviser Arthur Schwartz, and Donald Trump Jr. was a featured speaker.

Rubio is close to many of the Florida power brokers, influential Hispanic Republicans, major donors and grassroots organizers who supported his 2016 campaign and want him to run again at some point.

And some Jewish donors are uneasy over Vance’s relationship with Carlson, whose son works on Vance’s team. The donors view the former Fox News host as anti-Israel, according to people familiar with the matter.

Assault on Iran

Republican strategists, donors and White House officials keep close track of Trump’s public comments about Rubio and Vance. His recent language has shined the light on Rubio.

“Marco is going to go down, I think, as the best secretary of state in history. That’s my opinion. Now, I’m a little prejudiced because I like him,” Trump said of Rubio over the weekend.

Speaking to governors in February, Trump called Vance “a brilliant guy” who can be a “little bit tough on occasion…We gotta slow him down just a little bit.” Then he described Rubio as the “opposite extreme,” adding, “Marco does it with a velvet glove, but it’s still a kill.”

During two of the most significant moments of Trump’s second term—when the president launched a massive assault on Iran and when he oversaw the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro—Rubio was at the president’s side at Mar-a-Lago. Vance beamed in virtually.

White House officials said security protocols prevented Vance from being there in person, adding that the presence of multiple motorcades going in and out of the club could tip off adversaries to coming military action. They said Vance played a central role in the planning and execution of both operations.

Vance was silent for two days following the start of the Iran operation, a decision that the vice president’s aides said was meant to give Trump space to be the administration’s sole messenger on the strikes. The aides noted that other advisers on national security were similarly silent in the immediate aftermath of the attack.

People close to Vance said he was supportive of striking Iran, but he remains concerned about the prospect of a drawn-out war. During his quick rise in national politics, the Iraq war veteran—he served for four years as a military journalist with the Marines—has argued that many past foreign conflicts haven’t served the interests of the American people.

Vance told Fox News last week that the Iran operation is different from the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan because “the president has clearly defined what he wants to accomplish.”

The president was asked on Monday whether there was any disagreement between himself and Vance over the Iran operation. “He was, I would say philosophically, a little bit different than me,” Trump said. “I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic.”

Rubio, largely seen as a hawk during his Senate career, has become one of the administration’s leading faces of the Iran strikes, appearing on Capitol Hill last week for briefings with lawmakers. As a result, Rubio’s political standing could take a hit if the operation in Iran is remembered by voters as a foreign-policy mistake.

Rubio faced criticism from some conservatives after he suggested to reporters last week that Trump moved forward with strikes on Iran because Israel was preparing to take action against Tehran. Rubio later walked back those comments. The allegation that Israel is dictating U.S. policy has in recent months become a flashpoint among conservatives, especially younger ones who are increasingly espousing anti-Israel views.

Another contrast can be seen in speeches Vance and Rubio gave one year apart at the Munich Security Conference. Vance’s 2025 speech shocked European allies for its combativeness , while Rubio took a more measured approach this year that drew a standing ovation.

Their underlying tough-love message for the trans-Atlantic alliance was similar, but the differences underscored their contrasting styles. Trump praised Rubio’s speech to aides, according to people familiar with the matter.

There ‘isn’t any conflict’

Trump has begun seeking Rubio’s advice for an array of topics outside his purview, including how policies will play on Capitol Hill, people familiar with the conversations said.

Now, Trump and Rubio are teaming up on a plan to topple the Communist leadership of Cuba, a longtime goal for Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants. The success in Venezuela emboldened Trump administration officials to try to do so by the end of the year .

Outside work, Trump and Rubio have bonded over sports, and the president believes Rubio is a standout on television, according to people familiar with the matter. He thinks Rubio would be electable in what could be a challenging climate for Republicans, fearful of a Democrat undoing his legacy, and he has remarked how far Rubio went against him in the 2016 Republican primary.

Still, the president hasn’t been critical of Vance and didn’t suggest the vice president is unelectable, according to a person who has spoken to Trump.

Trump finds the idea of comparing the two a game, and doesn’t see it as him choosing a successor at this point, people familiar with the matter said. Trump has told associates that he hopes the two men run together on a joint ticket, a prospect many Republican strategists see as unlikely because Rubio may have other aspirations.

If Vance runs for president in 2028, some people close to Rubio think he might be better off waiting to launch his own campaign for the White House. Rubio would only step forward to run in 2028 if Trump gave him the nod, the people said.

When asked about Rubio potentially running in 2028, Vance said on Fox News last month, “The media wants to create this conflict, where there just isn’t any conflict.” He called Rubio his closest friend in the administration.

Vance and Rubio are both one-time Trump critics who rose to be on his vice presidential shortlist in 2024, with Vance edging Rubio at the last minute following a campaign by Donald Trump Jr. and others to advocate on behalf of the then-Ohio senator.

Rubio doubles as Trump’s national security adviser and fix-it man around the globe. A popular online meme shows Rubio taking on fictional new jobs as new issues pop up in the administration.

Anointing a successor is the leading political decision on Trump’s mind aside from the midterm elections later this year, people close to the president said. Trump is reluctant to talk publicly about 2028, knowing it signals the beginning of lame duck status.

The president could opt not to weigh in at all, allowing for an open primary that would test the Republican candidates.

A number of other Republicans are considering a presidential run, including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri. Trump filled his cabinet with former campaign rivals, such as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, all of whom may still harbor presidential ambitions.

Midterm test

The coming midterm elections will weigh heavily on Vance’s political future. If Vance—who is playing a central role in the administration’s midterm strategy in his role at the RNC to raise funds and campaign for candidates—can help the party avoid far-reaching losses, his political appeal could skyrocket. But dismal midterm results could leave party activists searching for an alternative.

Vance’s role has positioned him to build new relationships with donors and gain greater exposure. Trump has also tasked Vance with overseeing the administration’s crackdown on fraud.

Republicans, whose narrow control of the House could be at risk this November, continue to face challenging economic conditions, with voters widely giving Trump poor grades.

Enthusiasm is building for Vance outside the Washington bubble. “Print the signs. He’s the heir apparent,” said Kelley Koch, a conservative activist in Iowa who said the vice president has considerable support in the state, which holds the first nominating contest. If Vance were elected, Trump could mentor him from Mar-a-Lago, she said.

But podcast host Patrick Bet-David, whose show is popular with conservatives, said he recently surveyed his audience and that Rubio came out as the clear favorite. “I just think Rubio is ready,” he said. Bet-David said he ran into Fox News host Sean Hannity at a Palm Beach restaurant in February and extolled the secretary. “Every chance I get, I bring up Marco,” he said.

Trump was torn between picking Vance and Rubio for vice president in 2024. Both men had influential voices in their corners. Among the arguments that swayed Trump to pick Vance, according to a person familiar with the discussion, was that Vance would forever owe his political career to Trump, who endorsed him in his winning 2022 Ohio Senate bid. Rubio got his start as a protégé of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Several people inside and outside the White House said the vice president and his team pay too much attention to online echo chambers, wading into cultural issues animating the right that turn off more-mainstream voters.

Last year, Vance played down reports that a Young Republicans group chat featured bigoted messages, saying, “Kids do stupid things.” In February 2025, he defended a DOGE employee who resigned after old social-media posts surfaced in which the staffer wrote, “normalize Indian hate.”

Earlier this year, Vance faced criticism from conservative influencer Laura Loomer, who attacked him for his ties to Carlson, as well as his decision to speak at an antiabortion rally. She argued that the GOP’s messaging on abortion was outdated and risked political backlash in the midterms.

Vance privately raised concerns to Trump that Loomer was stoking a civil war among conservatives and putting the vice president at its center. Trump called Loomer in January to encourage her to knock it off, according to people familiar with the matter.

But as Trump delivered that message, he also asked her thoughts on Vance and Rubio.

Write to Alex Leary at alex.leary@wsj.com , Natalie Andrews at natalie.andrews@wsj.com and Meridith McGraw at Meridith.McGraw@WSJ.com