Europe’s apple market is facing one of its most volatile periods in recent years, with production at low levels, fluctuating demand, and prices reaching historic highs.
The latest forecast from the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) for the 2025/26 season highlights the pressures and structural changes shaping the sector.
EU Production Down Sharply
Apple output across the European Union is projected at 10.46 million tons, down 7.5% compared with the three-year average and well below the record 2018 harvest, when production exceeded 13 million tons.
According to WAPA analysts, the European apple market is in a phase of adjustment. Imports are expected to remain high, particularly if weather conditions continue to be unstable. At the same time, elevated prices could discourage some consumers, accelerating a shift toward alternative fruits.
Regional Trends
Higher production is expected in Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands. By contrast, declines are projected in Poland, Turkey, Hungary, Greece, and Southeastern Europe, where spring frosts heavily damaged orchards.
In Germany, “backyard cultivation” — apples grown for private household use — is forecast to increase to 450,000 tons, indirectly affecting market demand.
Young Consumers Turn to Avocados
At the Prognosfruit conference in Angers, France, analyst Ursula Schockenmelle noted “low enthusiasm” for apples among younger buyers.
Data presented at the event showed that in Germany, apples hold just 11% market share among young, single consumers and couples without children, compared with 22% for avocados. Experts attribute the shift to growing demand for “superfoods” and exotic fruits, a trend that could reshape the apple market in the long term.
Record Prices and Import Growth
Weak domestic output has driven apple prices to record levels. According to the European Commission, farm-gate prices in the first half of 2025 exceeded not only last year’s figures but also the five-year average.
Imports into the EU rose 13% year-on-year, reaching 238,000 tons for the 2024/25 season. Chile has become the bloc’s largest supplier with over 58,000 tons, overtaking traditional competitors such as Argentina, which faces challenges from high costs, aging varieties, and production issues.
While import prices eased in June to €1.32 per kilo from a record €1.63 in May, they remain well above previous years’ averages. Analysts say this confirms the European market is in an unusually unstable phase, heavily reliant on global trade.
Key Drivers of Decline
Experts point to three main factors behind the production slump:
- Adverse weather, including spring frosts and extreme conditions.
- Crop damage leading to reduced yield and lower fruit quality.
- Changing consumer habits, with declining interest in apples in core markets, especially among younger demographics.
Source: OT
