In the landscape of stable capital returns, the Greek stock market is poised to retain its position through 2024, promising a prosperous year primarily driven by anticipated robust dividend yields. Analysts predict a favorable outlook, with even conservative estimates surpassing the €3.5 billion mark. Notably, banks are set to re-enter the dividend scene after a 16-year absence, with expected distributions nearing €800 million.
The economic vigor of Greece finds expression in its listed companies, showcasing historic performance levels for another year. Companies are projected to continue on a trajectory of record-breaking achievements, offering enhanced dividends coupled with relatively low valuations. Dividends in 2023 exceeded €3 billion, a notable leap from the €2.4 billion recorded in 2022 and the highest since 2009, the year before the economic crisis.
The lion’s share of dividends is expected to go to high-capitalization entities, commanding the attention of most long-term market portfolios. The average dividend yield is estimated at approximately 4%-5%, with exceptions like OPAP, expected to reach close to 10%, and HelleniQ Energy, projected to surpass 9%.
Aegean and Public Power Corporation (PPC) are slated to return dividends this year, though specifics regarding amounts are pending. However, PPC announced a distribution scheduled for July. Noteworthy dividend contributors also include Jumbo, expected to offer around €1.5, and Mytilineos, while smaller market players are expected to contribute between 2% and 3%.
The banking sector is set to dominate the dividend arena, signaling a closure to the turbulent years of the crisis. With dividend estimates ranging between €0.05 and €0.08, except for the National Bank of Greece, anticipated to exceed €0.30, investors can look forward to yields between 2% and 5.5% per bank.
This positive dividend outlook stems from the profitability and strategic business moves made by several listed companies, building a strong foundation despite recent revenue declines. However, amidst generally optimistic projections for the new year due to high 2023 profitability and expected economic growth, Societe Generale forecasts a 3.48% decline in Greek listed companies’ earnings per share for 2024, differing significantly from other analysts’ estimates.