The Greek fiscal council released its 2025 autumn report on macroeconomic indicators and fiscal developments, estimating economic growth will settle between 2.1% and 2.2% in 2025.

The report notes that despite global uncertainty and geopolitical challenges, Greek GDP expanded by 2% in the first six months, with private consumption and investments primarily fueling growth.

For 2026, the council projects a 2.3% economic growth rate amid global turmoil and geopolitical uncertainty, forecasting a state budget at 2.4%.

A key factor has been a 2.1% increase in gross fixed capital formation in the first half of 2025, supported by continued funding from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Greece has drawn €24.5 billion from the RRF as of November 2025, with an additional €11.4 billion expected by the end of 2026.

Inflation, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, has fallen sharply between 2022 and 2025. It is projected to reach 3% in 2025 and ease further to 2.2% in 2026, although strong price pressures persist in services, particularly in the tourism sector.

Foreign direct investment has also shown positive momentum, rising by €5.2 billion in the first eight months of 2025 to a total of €8.1 billion, underscoring strengthened investor confidence.

Fiscal policy remains disciplined, with a primary surplus of 3.7% of GDP projected for 2025 and a balanced general government budget. Plans to accelerate repayment of part of the public debt are expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and strengthen the credibility of the Greek economy.

The government’s strategy for 2025 includes speeding up repayment of debt maturing between 2033 and 2041, as well as part of the high-interest loans owed to eurozone countries from the first bailout program. According to officials, the move is expected to have an immediate positive impact both on lowering the debt ratio and on improving Greece’s fiscal reputation. Strengthening that credibility is seen as a key condition for improving growth prospects, and the strategy is expected to further support the economy’s momentum.