Athens is preparing for a two-stage visit by European officials who will review Greece’s economic performance and the progress of its EU-funded Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF), according to Greek government sources.

Technical teams are expected to meet with senior government officials in the coming days as part of the European Semester process and post-program surveillance — the framework under which EU institutions monitor member states’ fiscal and economic policies after exiting financial assistance programs. A second round of visits is likely in early spring, focusing specifically on the pace of reforms and investments linked to the Recovery Fund.

Strong Fiscal Data on the Table

This week’s talks are set to center on Greece’s fiscal performance and the closing of the 2025 budget year. The latest provisional data from the Greek Ministry of Economy and Finance point to record tax revenues of nearly €72 billion in 2025. Officials attribute much of that increase to increasingly higher prices, which have boosted indirect tax receipts but also strained consumers.

At the same time, Greece posted a primary surplus of more than €8 billion in 2025, exceeding the official target by €2.7 billion. The strong results have raised expectations that the government could announce new support measures after Easter, once a full picture of 2025 is available.

A similar approach was taken last year, when authorities unveiled a rent rebate, a €250 payment to pensioners, and an additional €500 million for the Public Investment Program.

Key Dates Ahead

Several milestones will shape the coming months. By the end of February, the 2025 fiscal year will formally close, giving the economic team a clearer view of tax revenues and spending.

In the first half of March, Greece is due to release data for the fourth quarter of 2025, which will determine the country’s annual growth rate. On April 21, Eurostat and ELSTAT, Greece’s national statistics agency, are expected to certify the final fiscal results for 2025.

Those figures will play a decisive role in whether new measures will be announced for 2026, beyond those that are going to be announced by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at the Thessaloniki International Fair, an annual political and economic event traditionally used to outline policy priorities for the coming year. The measures expected at this year’s fair are also seen as setting the stage for the 2027 election year.

Recovery Fund Under Scrutiny

In parallel, a new review of Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Fund — the EU’s post-pandemic investment program — is expected to conclude by the end of August, unless the European Commission grants an extension.

Under the current timeline, the Greek government is responsible for completing the core mission of the fund by Aug. 31, 2026. By September of this year, 178 milestones tied to reforms and investments are due to be completed.

The European Commission’s spring forecasts, expected in mid-May, will include not only updated economic projections but also a broader assessment of how far Greece has progressed in implementing its Recovery Fund commitments.

Warning Signs Over Absorption

Despite solid fiscal figures, concerns are growing about Greece’s ability to fully absorb the Recovery Fund resources on time. Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras recently sounded the alarm in an interim report, noting that about €11.4 billion of the total €36 billion allocated to Greece has yet to reach the real economy.

That shortfall raises questions about whether the country can draw down all available funds by August 2026, when the program officially across the EU.

Adding to the concerns, a recent analysis by Eurobank pointed to weaknesses in the grants component of the fund. The report found that Greece is achieving a “significantly lower utilization rate” in grants compared with other segments.

The same analysis stressed the need to accelerate implementation, arguing that efforts must be intensified “so that as many as possible of the remaining reforms and investments linked to the fund are completed and, consequently, as many resources as possible are drawn down.”

Source: ot.gr