Greece recorded a strong fiscal performance in the first nine months of 2025, posting a primary budget surplus of $9.35 billion, well above the government’s target of $5.2 billion, according to data released by the Finance Ministry.

The state budget balance, on a modified cash basis, showed a total surplus of $2.31 billion between January and September, compared with a projected deficit of $1.58 billion for the same period in the 2025 budget report and a $1.57 billion surplus during the same period in 2024.

Tax revenue exceeds expectations

Tax revenue reached $6.3 billion in September, $144 million, or 2.3%, higher than the monthly target. From January through September, net state budget revenue totaled $54.56 billion, up $460 million, or 0.9%, from the government’s projection.

Excluding technical adjustments, net tax revenue came in $1.83 billion above target, driven by stronger collections of income tax, value-added tax and excise duties. Before tax refunds, total revenue reached $52.82 billion, up 4.3% from forecasts.

Tax refunds amounted to $6.76 billion, including a one-time $784.8 million VAT refund linked to the renewal of the Attiki Odos motorway concession, which is fiscally neutral and accounted for in the 2024 budget.

Spending lower than expected

Public Investment Program revenue reached $2.87 billion, $571 million below expectations, while total state spending came to $52.26 billion — $3.43 billion less than forecast but $2.93 billion higher than in 2024.

The underspending was mainly due to delayed transfers to social security funds and other public entities totaling $2.07 billion, along with postponed payments of $650 million for defense procurements.

Investment spending totaled $8.19 billion, slightly below target but up $948 million from a year earlier. Payments under the Recovery and Resilience Facility reached $2.63 billion, $240 million above target.

Fiscal outlook remains positive

After adjusting for timing differences, the ministry estimated the primary surplus exceeded goals by about $1.08 billion. The result reflects the central government balance and does not include the full general government accounts, which cover local authorities and other public entities.

The data confirm that Greece continues to outperform fiscal targets, supported by stronger tax receipts and restrained spending. Total tax revenue in September surpassed $6.3 billion, underlining the resilience of public finances despite a challenging economic climate.