Greece’s current account deficit widened by about €1.5 billion in the first seven months of 2026, reaching €9.3 billion, according to figures the Bank of Greece released Monday. The ongoing surge in international oil prices now threatens to push the shortfall further, given how dependent the Greek economy remains on energy imports.
The deterioration came despite an improvement in the overall balance of goods and services. The goods trade deficit narrowed during the period, and tourism continued to provide a substantial offset. The renewed increase in oil prices, however, risks reversing that trend in the months ahead.
The energy account
The relationship between energy prices and external deficit is especially pronounced in Greece. When international oil and gas prices rise, the cost of the country’s energy imports rises with them, all else being equal.
Greece also has a sizable refining sector and exports petroleum products, so higher international prices lift the value of fuel exports as well. The net effect on the current account depends on the gap between imports and exports, and on the quantities and prices involved on each side.
The seven month figures show how strongly price changes are distorting the headline trade numbers. Goods exports rose 16.1 percent in current prices but only 4.9 percent at constant prices. Imports rose 5.8 percent in value and just 0.6 percent at constant prices.
The warnings
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras has flagged the risk for months. On April 6 he described the persistent current account deficit as a primary source of vulnerability for the Greek economy in 2026. He has pointed to two opposing forces shaping the external balance. Goods exports, tourism receipts, European funds and foreign direct investment support the country’s external position, while higher international energy prices and rising imports of investment goods weigh on the trade balance. Stournaras has also said the improvement recorded in the current account in 2025 mainly reflected a better fuel balance, driven largely by lower energy prices. A reversal of that trend is one of the factors that could put renewed pressure on the external balance.
Nikos Vettas, general director of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), made a more direct connection last July. Presenting IOBE’s quarterly report on July 16, he said the current account deficit had risen to €8.3 billion in the first four months of 2026, from €7.3 billion in the same period of 2025, and linked part of the deterioration to higher fuel prices. The Foundation had already warned in April that Greece remains heavily exposed to oil imports from the Gulf and that energy prices staying elevated poses a significant risk.
Vettas has also pointed to a deeper problem in the Greek economy. Demand has outpaced supply since the debt crisis, pushing up both prices and the external deficit. His prescription is stronger productivity and competitiveness.
Tourism is not enough
For now, tourism remains a strong buffer. Nonresident arrivals rose 8.6 percent over the first seven months of the year, and travel receipts increased 12 percent, widening the surplus in the services balance.
The goods trade deficit also narrowed, as exports grew faster than imports. Even so, the overall current account deficit worsened. It rose by about €1.5 billion, to €9.3 billion, driven mainly by a deterioration in the secondary income balance and, to a lesser extent, the primary income balance.
A difficult autumn ahead
That combination is what makes the rise in oil prices more consequential. It arrives at a moment when the current account is already under strain.
If international energy prices remain elevated, the cost of fuel imports could climb further and erode some of the improvement recorded so far in the goods balance. The eventual outcome will depend, among other factors, on petroleum product exports, the volume of energy imports, tourism performance and the remaining components of the balance. The renewed rise in energy costs adds one more source of pressure to a gap that had already reached €9.3 billion in seven months.
Source: OT.gr
