Metlen is emerging as an unlikely winner from the geopolitical turmoil rippling through global commodity and energy markets.
As conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East disrupts supply chains and fuels volatility, the Greek industrial group is benefiting from a convergence of rising aluminum prices, surging natural gas markets and a strategic foothold in renewable energy; a combination that is boosting margins and reinforcing its competitive position.
Aluminum rally accelerates on supply shocks
The latest escalation has sharpened focus on raw materials, particularly after confirmed strikes by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on major aluminum facilities in the Persian Gulf, including Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA).
The attacks come on top of persistent logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, already weighing on production and shipments. ALBA has cut output capacity by 19% in recent weeks, citing shipping and supply constraints.
The result is a tightening global aluminum market, with prices already around $3,275 per ton and forecasts pointing above $4,000 as supply risks intensify.
For producers with secured inputs and integrated operations, the rally is translating directly into stronger earnings momentum.
Integrated model amplifies upside
Metlen’s vertically integrated structure — spanning alumina to finished aluminum — limits exposure to raw material volatility while enhancing operational flexibility. That advantage is becoming more pronounced as supply tightens.
In the first nine months of 2025, the group’s metallurgy division generated €690 million in revenue, accounting for 13% of total turnover. At the time, aluminum prices averaged $2,568 per ton, significantly below current levels, leaving room for margin expansion as prices climb.
European premiums remain elevated, reflecting constrained supply, high energy costs and the approaching rollout of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Energy positioning boosts margins
Energy strategy is proving equally critical.
Metlen secured natural gas supplies at lower price levels ahead of the recent rally and implemented hedging strategies that now shield it from cost spikes. In an environment where energy is the dominant production cost, this positioning allows the company to sustain lower costs while benefiting from higher market prices.
The setup not only supports margins but also creates optionality. With gas availability tightening, Metlen is positioned to supply third parties, opening an additional revenue stream.
Renewables provide a hedge against volatility
At the same time, higher fossil fuel prices are accelerating the shift toward renewable energy — a sector where Metlen has expanded through turnkey project development.
The broader European picture underscores the role of renewables as a stabilizing force. In Spain, high renewable penetration has helped contain wholesale electricity prices, cushioning the impact of gas volatility. In contrast, Italy’s heavier reliance on thermal generation leaves it more exposed to swings in fuel costs.
In Greece, the expected addition of new photovoltaic capacity in the coming months is likely to ease upward pressure on electricity prices, offering some relief as the energy crunch persists.
