Greek equities have surged to the top of global stock market returns in 2025, outperforming international peers despite a turbulent geopolitical and economic environment. Analysts attribute this remarkable performance to a combination of resilient investor sentiment, a favorable domestic economic outlook, and strategic positioning amid global market shifts.
Athens Stock Exchange Outpaces Global Indices
According to data from MSCI, the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX) is currently the world’s top-performing market, showing gains of 43.5% in local currency terms and 63% in U.S. dollars. Its benchmark General Index is up by 34%, the second-best performance globally, with banking stocks soaring by 63%. This is despite earlier-year shocks such as April’s global tariff crisis triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” measures.
Investors have responded to market volatility with strategic optimism, brushing aside U.S. tariff uncertainty and embracing risk assets. The result has been a “V-shaped” recovery that pushed global markets, including Greece’s, to multi-year highs.
Capital Inflows and Investor Confidence
Since early 2023—just before Greece regained investment-grade credit status—international investors have poured €11.5 billion into Greek equities and another €6.5 billion into government bonds. Greece’s risk premium has significantly declined, with borrowing costs now just slightly above those of France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy.
Financial experts describe ATHEX as a “value market” with the growth potential of a developed economy. Analysts at Global X, which manages the Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK), note Greece’s rapid economic expansion, supportive policy environment, and attractive valuations as key reasons for sustained foreign interest.
Tariffs and Trade Tensions: Still a Threat
Despite the optimism, analysts warn of potential corrections. Following the sweeping tariffs announced by the U.S. in April, which initially rattled markets, the U.S. effective tariff rate rose to 17.6%—the highest since 1934. The Yale Budget Lab and ING both suggest these moves may be more politically symbolic than economically transformative.
As of August 1, 22 countries are scheduled to face revised U.S. tariffs. ING forecasts end-of-year average tariffs of 10–15% for EU nations, 50% for China, and 10–15% globally. The concern, experts say, is not only the economic impact but also the damage to trust in international trade negotiations.
Greek Market Outlook: Upgrade in Sight?
Greece’s continued economic strength is drawing attention. According to Global X, the ATHEX trades below book value despite robust performance and is expected to be considered for reclassification into the developed market category. This potential upgrade could open the door to substantial capital inflows from funds tracking developed markets—estimated at $15–16 trillion globally, compared to just $3 billion for emerging markets.
At the same time, M&A activity and corporate developments—such as the proposed acquisition of the Athens Exchange by Euronext, the Unicredit–Alpha Bank agreement, and new listings like Metlen on the London Stock Exchange—highlight the growing international interest in Greek assets.
Structural Strength and Long-Term Potential
Greece’s macroeconomic fundamentals are also supporting investor optimism. S&P Global Ratings recently highlighted the country as one of the few in Europe to emerge from the pandemic “richer and stronger.” From 2019 to 2024, Greece’s nominal GDP grew by 28.3%, while its debt only rose by 6.6%, creating a 21.7 percentage point gap in favor of growth.
S&P projects growth of 2.3% for 2025, rising slightly to 2.5% in 2026. The agency has hinted at further credit upgrades if Greece’s external imbalances improve, particularly its reliance on imports.
Challenges Ahead
Despite current momentum, analysts caution that Greece’s window of economic outperformance may close within three years if structural reforms are not sustained. The country’s ability to efficiently absorb EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, and continue reforms, will determine whether current gains can be maintained.
In the meantime, the Greek stock market’s rally—and the renewed confidence it reflects—stands out as a rare bright spot in a world marked by uncertainty and trade tensions.
