Following points, though are of immense importance for jugging the consequences of this highly dangerous presidential adventure
- USA’s Chief of Staff, General D. Caine warned about the risks and possible consequences of a large-scale military operation against Iran
- USA’s Chief of the intelligence community, T. Gabbart stated that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon.
- Israel continuously demanded an all-out attack on Iran
- Teheran stated officially “no attempt to ever acquiring nuclear weapons” and proposed, three days ago in Geneva, to the US representatives an international control plan of his peaceful nuclear program; both sites had even started technical talks with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) on the specific modalities
In consideration of all the above significant points my humble opinion is:
The American president has trapped himself. Reasons, his erratic personality, his limited capabilities and above all, his dependence on Israel. He was cornered into a situation from which it was hard to escape in an easy and harmless way. His choises: Moving violently forward was untoubtly highly dangerous; a compromised attack would be admission of weakness; retreating seemed him impossible.
A diplomatic breakthrough in the negotiations between the USA and Iran would be obviously the ideal solution to the crisis. However, the rigid red lines of both sides, yet mainly of Israel, related to the iranian uranium enrichment capabilities, the rights for missile development, as well as Teheran’s external relations in the Middle East, made a diplomatic peaceful solution rather improbable.
Thus, president Trump had practically only two options. All-out attack (cases of Iraq 2003 and Libya 2011) or complete inaction (case of North Korea 2019). Yet, the decision, to use force, in line with his repeated threats, moreover sattisfying Israel’s inflexible posture, will, to my huble opinion, degrade him finally irreparably. Both to friends and enemies of the USA and, above all, to the powerful operational arm of the American administration. Those, who practically guarantee the military, industrial and technological interests of the country. The same ones that president Trump calls the hostile “American Deep State”.
However, the war choice the American president made, will ultimately be a resounding defeat of his bombastic declaration for a peaceful resolution of the Iranian crisis. Of his Nobel prize aspirations. Moreover, it will substantially harm American strategic interests – diplomatic, militatary and economic. Simply put, it will be a presidential fiasco that, most probably, will have significant consequences for the historically unique American President. Unfortunately, and most probably, for the innocent wider world.
Dr. Pantelis F. Ikonomou
frmr IAEA Nuclear Safeguards Inspector, ELIAM research associate
