A term primarily used in physics and thermodynamics, entropy is defined by Britannica.com as:
[Entropy is] the measure of a system’s thermal energy per unit temperature that is unavailable for doing useful work. Because work is obtained from ordered molecular motion, the amount of entropy is also a measure of the molecular disorder, or randomness, of a system…
There is a lot of “molecular disorder” and randomness all around these days, certainly at the international level. Lots of thermal energy is being generated, as countries and leaders with competing agendas bang on each other’s heads. But this energy is scattered, of low quality, and cannot be harnessed for the performance of any productive task. It is like posting endless chatter on X and True Social, hitting right and left without a clear target, running around in circles.
So, what is the source of today’s high entropy? It is the tariffs that the US President imposes and cancels, then imposes again. It is the declared ceasefires between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, between the US and Iran in the Gulf, all of them honoured in the breach. It is the tit-for-tat attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets between Russia and Ukraine. It is also the escalating sanctions imposed by the EU on invading Russia but not on occupying and systematically assassinating Israel, or the UN Security Council resolution that condemns Iran for its strikes on Gulf states but ignores the US-Israel strikes on Iran that started the war in the first place.
The situation in Cuba is another source of high entropy, with the Cuban people trying to keep their dignity and their lights on, under a decades-long embargo that has got tighter under Trump and Rubio. The same with Venezuela, where the people are still waiting for the better days that the US unilateral removal from power of President Maduro was supposed to bring. In Sudan, civilian lives are devastated in large numbers by rival military factions backed by external powers, while in South Sudan recurring political and intercommunal violence keeps the population in a state of chronic insecurity.
High entropy is also manifesting itself in the Ebola emergency in central Africa, which is riding on a lethal mix of local conflict and weak infrastructure, cuts in international humanitarian aid, and external economic and political interests. The intolerance shown by South Africans towards refugees and migrants from other African countries, the inhumane treatment of migrants by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, the worsening treatment of refugees and migrants in Europe – all this also contributes to global entropy increase.
While leaders play attrition games against foreign and domestic opponents, real or imaginary, exciting the crowds about petty things, the biggest losers are the weakest elements within and across societies; those who have no immediate say in the games under way, nothing much to gain, and no extra “fat” to burn in order to survive. They include the population of the Gaza Strip that is hanging on the balance of survival in abysmal conditions, while the Board of Peace and its eternal Chairman are playing delaying tactics for Israel; the population of Southern Lebanon that is being evicted from their towns and villages, but also the ever-insecure Israeli population south of the border; the Iranian people who are experiencing worsening economic conditions and the possibility of renewed military strikes by the US and Israel; the refugees and migrants the world over.
Let us also not forget the world energy consumers at large, who see the fuel and fertilizer prices going up and down, but mostly up, taking the prices of other essentials up with them. The air, soil and water pollution caused by ongoing wars and fast-advancing climate change are also eating into human security and well-being. The breathtaking speed with which AI tools are emerging and replacing white-collar jobs is breeding more insecurity and discontent within the middle classes that have been the cement holding together societies and democracies. In general, more and more people are feeling threatened by the high-entropy messiness and are starting, consciously or subconsciously, to wonder whether they are the proverbial frogs in the initially lukewarm water that is gradually heating up turning them into soup.
Who benefits from this entropy increase and the dead-ends, through which it manifests itself? In the minds of some strategists, a dead-end can be the legitimizing circumstance for a “final solution”, a final blow that if dealt would solve a certain conflict forever, in the strategists’ favour. Thankfully, we did not get to see what the destruction of a civilization might mean, if President Trump’s early April 2026 threat against Iran had materialized. That it meant the use of nuclear weapons at a massive scale cannot be excluded. The same with the occasional Russian threats against Ukraine and its European supporters. Of course, even conventional means can be quite effective, as shown by the ever-worsening situation of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip but also the West Bank and East Jerusalem in the hands of the Israeli army and settlers.
In the grand scheme of things, China may be the eventual winner of this high-entropy game, mostly by default, if the others weaken themselves in the process of endless confrontations and Beijing continues its methodical expansion through trade and investment; as long as China does not get entangled in an armed conflict with Taiwan or its East Asian and South China Sea neighbours. Arms manufacturers and dealers are benefiting in all cases of generalized friction, of course, as are technologists and entrepreneurs selling their hi-tech wares and amassing the world’s financial resources.
To break the entropy trap, though, to the benefit of the large majority of humanity, these festering wounds of forever conflicts, intolerance and disease of all sorts need to be treated systematically and decisively, in-depth and through long-term lenses, to avoid new outbreaks in the foreseeable future. This cannot be done by the Nobel Peace Prize-aspiring and conflict sowing US President, nor by the “wrath-of-God” Israelis or the ever-complaining and invading Russians, nor by the Russia-fixated and Israel-revering Europeans, not even by the UN Security Council that decides one-sidedly or not at all. The need is urgent for honest, persistent and hopeful brokers, or rather high-entropy breakers, who can set the global system on a productive course. Could this be done through renewed cooperation in the framework of a reinvented UN that is supported by a coalition of middle powers, and/or through the use of another kind of authority, like the Pope’s steadfast moral stance potentially combined with that of other religious leaders from around the world? Time will tell, but these are initial entropy-fighting ideas worth pushing for.
