Turkey’s aggravation is palpable but incomprehensible. In essence, it’s picking a fight with the wall.
I hear the analysts’ explanations—Ankara’s terror of being encircled by Greece-Cyprus-Israel exacerbated by a syndrome triggered by fears of the world failing to acknowledge its grandeur.
I’ll leave the matter of importance aside. Everyone measures their own stature as they see fit, but runs the risk of being called delusional or full of themselves.
But neither Greece nor Israel is making the slightest claim against Turkey. Cyprus, meanwhile, has its own long-running dispute with Ankara, but no one believes the solution to that conundrum will be a military one.
Even the “Shield of Achilles” (when completed) is a defensive system that by definition poses no threat to any of our neighbors. Moreover, the arms procurements of recent years have never deviated from a logic of reciprocity and balance.
And just as Turkey asks no one’s permission to develop the drones and other armaments of its choosing, I don’t see why anyone else should have to seek Ankara’s approval before enhancing their armed forces.
In any case, the issue of the militarization of the Aegean islands is not a recent one. Quite the opposite. It is extremely complex and involves at least three international treaties: Lausanne, Montreux, and Paris—and Turkey is not even a signatory to the latter.
All of which reveals these objections for what they are—a pretext, fueled by Turkish self-importance and the regional role it lays claim to.
A role no one seems disposed in the slightest to recognize.
Twenty years ago, when Turkish-Israeli relations were still good, a high-ranking Israeli military official visited Ankara and met with Erdogan, who had been elected Prime Minister just a few months earlier.
Upon his return, while describing his impressions, he reached this conclusion: “I don’t know how we are going to reach an understanding with someone who converses with Allah!”
Naturally, a lot of water has flowed through the Bosphorus since then, and I don’t know what Allah has to say about it. But the problem remains the same.
The Erdogan regime may or may not converse with the One True God and His Prophet (which it has every right to do…), but it has opted for a policy of brinkmanship that’s highly unlikely to get it where it wants to be.
Erdogan’s closeness to President Trump may well have engendered self-confidence. But it does not produce power.
And, however things pan out, Ankara’s gradual estrangement from the European Union does not bode well for Turkey’s future.
Which, of course, is none of our business. We have no say in the matter, and we aren’t asking for one.
