You don’t need to be a geopolitical genius to realize that a conflict with Iran isn’t simply of regional significance.
And that 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a crisis there will have a direct impact on the markets and the global economy.
The negotiations in Geneva didn’t have a meaningful outcome and will theoretically resume next week, but with prospects unknown and unknowable.
Still more so, because a deal won’t be easy to reach.
The regime in Tehran has recently had to deal with riots which left thousands dead and have pushed it the limits of its endurance. Iran has no allies, its militia in the Islamic world have collapsed (Hamas, Hezbollah…), and I don’t see many others taking an interest in seeing it live to fight another day.
It is surely worth noting that, as the tensions peaked, the President of India made an official visit to Israel!
On the other hand, the Trump presidency’s “honeymoon” period with the American public has most probably come to an end. With American voters heading to the polls in November for the mid-terms, which don’t traditionally favor the incumbent in the White House.
Of course, the domestic audience that Trump seems to primarily care about don’t seem interested in Iran, with America’s domestic problems taking precedence now over international fantasies. In the (almost) two hours he spent bragging from the floor of Congress, it’s doubtful that Trump spent even three minutes on Tehran.
Does all of this mean war? Not necessarily. But they do mean he’s playing with fire, and when you do that, you can never know when you’re going to get your fingers burned.
It seems the US military leadership is generally against any potential conflict with Iran, but it doesn’t seem that the White House is lending them even half an ear.
On the other hand, of course, you don’t usually deploy aircraft carriers, planes and armies, only to pack up and go home quietly a few weeks later.
The cost of such a mobilization is a deterrent in itself. Even if the cost of a generalized conflict seems too heavy to bear.
The truth is, you simply can’t know what either side is going to do. Neither the current occupants of the White House nor the mullahs in Tehran are paragons of rationality, after all.
A providential de-escalation would certainly be a Godsend. Perhaps even a gift from Allah.
