Probably not a well-known proverb, the title of this article that is, but it does convey an age-old truth: Empires and superpowers age badly, as they cling on to power pretending they are still at their prime. Eventually, they succumb to their fate but not before a lot of pain is inflicted upon the broader world and their own people. The Trump Administration’s lashing out in all directions, sowing divisions and opening up a thousand fronts, domestically and internationally, is the way the US superpower is choosing to celebrate the upcoming 250th anniversary of its establishment.
Initial “fireworks” for the anniversary, well before 4 July 2026, come in the form of the US G20 Presidency’s decision to throw South Africa out of the G20, while bringing Poland into the group. Moreover, the three priority themes of the US G20 Presidency obviously constitute anniversary presents to itself: unleashing economic prosperity by limiting regulatory burdens – which seems to be targeting “regulatory superpower” Europe; unlocking affordable and secure energy supply chains – a paraphrasing of “drill baby drill” and pushing US LNG onto the world; and pioneering new technologies and innovations – or how the US can ensure the global predominance of its technologies, from internet platforms and AI models to cars, military and space technology.
Among the apparent targets of the Trump Administration’s ire, through the G20 agenda and otherwise, are South Africa and Europe, until recently quite close partners of the US, especially the latter. South Africa’s record is praised, up to and including Mandela’s government, but there are only negative characterizations after that, in terms of the treatment of the white population, government corruption, economic (mis-)management, etc. Even the focus of the South African G20 Presidency on equity and the sustainable development goals, including climate action, have been cited as reasons for the US’s staying away from the Johannesburg G20 Summit (November 2025) and for disinviting South Africa from the Miami G20 Summit (December 2026). The South Africa government’s case against Israel for the treatment of the Palestinians in Gaza and its membership of the BRICS, including its participation in efforts to de-dollarize trade among BRICS countries, does not help improve the US perception of it.
Europe continues to be another favorite target of the US Administration, which abhors the EU’s regulatory practices that undercut the freedom of action and profits of US companies, including the digital giants, as well as the focus on renewable energy, the perceived softness on migrants, and more. European resistance to pro-Russia solutions for the Russia-Ukraine war also upset Mr. Trump and his associates. This despite the promised steep increase in military spending by Europeans, the playing along with US-promoted pro-Israel solutions for Gaza, the capitulation on several demands regarding trade and tariffs, the silence on the extrajudicial killings of alleged narcotraffickers by the US Navy in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and more.
Can this madness be stopped, or at least significantly undercut, before it lights up the universe? Hopefully, those targeted for exemplary punishment can stand up and fight: South Africa capitalizing on its BRICS membership, as well as its strategic partnership with Europe, its connections to and respect it enjoys from middle powers of the South and the North, and from global civil society. Europe, for its part, could be one of those middle powers that join forces across traditional camps and lend their combined weight to rebalancing the international system on the basis of principles and rules that bind all, big and small. But for that it needs to really speak with one voice and speak to everyone, including Russia, directly and not via Washington, establish its independent lines with China and India too, have the courage of defending to the end its own traditions of inclusiveness and equity, science-based decision-making, green policies.
Interesting to note that the Trump Administration’s hyper-active foreign policy, including economic and trade policy, and the tensions it is creating that may well engulf the US in protracted confrontations, flies in the face of the MAGA movement’s core tenant of America First. While it was sold to the voters as focusing on the needs of US citizens rather than getting entangled in new international adventures, in practice it has been anything but that. It is now apparent that it means America becoming the unchallenged first bully in the regions of the world that fall under its direct “tutelage”: the “Western Hemisphere” of the Americas and the Caribbean, and the West, primarily Europe and the Anglo-Saxon outposts around the world. Beyond those, in what could be a measure of realism and/or “gentlemen’s agreement” with fellow autocrats in Russia and China, we seem to be moving to a division of the world into respective spheres of influence. And of course, increasing repression at home to quash any diverging voices and ensure perpetuation of a hyper-conservative, intolerant, cruelly violent and oligarchical approach.
The declining superpower may well decide that the stress it is causing to the global system is productive enough for its interests, so it may keep doing it. Ceding a finger here and another there inevitably leads to losing both of one’s hands in no time. Hopefully, all those running such a danger will realize that and do something about it, together, before the accumulating systemic stress leads to complete system failure.
Dr. Georgios Kostakos, a former UN Secretariat official, is Executive Director of the Brussels-based Foundation for Global Governance and Sustainability (FOGGS) and a Research Associate of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
