The new tourist season is starting with mixed signals, appearing to be mainly affected by the increased uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East. On the one hand, the tourism sector maintains strong momentum and an increased supply of airline seats; on the other hand, however, it is under pressure from travel costs, restrained demand—at least at the start of the new season—and the volatility of international markets.
According to a recent meeting at the Greek National Tourism Organisation (GNTO), Greece continues to be regarded as a “safe haven” for major European markets, although a “wait-and-see stance” is being observed, particularly in new bookings.
A double-edged situation
According to tourism stakeholders, geopolitical instability acts both as a threat and as an opportunity. On the one hand, it increases uncertainty and raises travel costs. On the other, it strengthens Greece’s position as a safe Mediterranean destination, leading to a shift of tourist flows away from more unstable regions. The 10% increase in air passenger traffic during the first two months of 2026 confirms this momentum, while there is also a widening of demand toward less well-known destinations, a development that enhances the geographical spread of the tourism product.
Rising costs
The decisive factor for this year’s season appears to be the overall cost of holidays. The increase in airfares, combined with rising prices in energy and services, creates a more expensive tourism package. This may reduce the length of stays, boost demand for more affordable destinations or periods, and increase the importance of offers and last-minute bookings.
So far, data from hoteliers and tour operators show that the year is starting with particularly positive prospects. Scheduled airline seats to Greece for the period March–October exceed 30.5 million, marking an 8.4% increase compared to last year. This development confirms the intention of airlines and tour operators to invest dynamically in the country.
However, this picture is accompanied by sharp price increases in holiday packages. The surge in fuel costs and flight rerouting—due to restrictions in Middle Eastern airspace—have significantly increased airlines’ operating costs. These impacts are already being passed on to passengers, with air ticket prices rising by up to 560% on certain international routes.
Selective demand
At the level of holiday demand, the picture is mixed. Despite initial optimism for a 3%–5% increase in tourism flows in 2026, recent developments have led to more cautious behavior among travelers.
In several markets, there is a complete “freeze” or slowdown in bookings, with travelers adopting a wait-and-see approach in light of geopolitical developments. At the same time, new online bookings show a decline of 8%–10% in certain mass tourism destinations, mainly from key transatlantic markets. It is noted that, so far, there are no mass cancellations for the peak summer season, but rather a shift of decisions to a later time and greater reliance on last-minute bookings. As for cruise tourism, the sector appears to be more affected, as companies are modifying itineraries in the Eastern Mediterranean to avoid war zones.
Flights
At the same time, the crisis has brought about major changes in the global flight map. Europe–Middle East connections have decreased by up to 59%, while tens of thousands of flight cancellations have been recorded overall. Airlines are forced to use alternative routes via Turkey or the southern Arabian Peninsula, increasing both travel duration and cost.
For Greece, the effects are milder compared to other European countries, but they are still present, as flights to and from the Middle East have decreased by about 38%, while at Athens airport the drop reaches 41%.
Overall, Greek tourism in 2026 is moving along a fine balance. The strong demand base, increased airline capacity, and the country’s image as a safe destination create the conditions for another positive year.
However, the evolution of the crisis in the Middle East, airline ticket prices, and the behavior of key markets will ultimately determine the extent of this year’s tourism growth. “The most likely scenario is a year of uneven speeds. That is, strong demand in certain markets and periods, but also increased volatility that will test the sector’s resilience,” say representatives of the hotel industry.
