A group of roughly 30 prisoners convicted in Sweden of serious crimes are being prepared for transfer hundreds of kilometers away, to Tartu prison in Estonia. It marks the first rollout of a controversial agreement through which Stockholm is trying to address unprecedented overcrowding in its prison system by “renting” cells in another European country.
The five-year agreement initially allows Sweden to send up to 300 prisoners, paying Estonia €30.6 million a year. It also includes an option to transfer another 300 people, at a cost of €8,500 per prisoner per month. The number is expected to reach roughly 200 by the end of 2026, climbing to the maximum of 600 sometime in 2027.
For the Swedish government, the deal is an urgent response to what it calls “tremendous pressure” on its prisons. For Estonia, it’s a way to put a modern but largely empty prison system to use. Critics, however, call it a dangerous precedent that turns prisoners into objects of cross-border trade.
Sweden’s Prisons Are Full
Sweden’s prison occupancy is at historic highs. The spread of organized crime, gang violence, tougher sentencing, and a “law and order” political approach have nearly doubled the prison population within a decade. Between 2015 and 2025, the number of inmates climbed to 11,232. At the same time, the rise in serious crime has come with longer sentences, further shrinking the availability of cells.
Building new prisons takes time and significant resources. Transferring prisoners to Estonia offers an immediate fix and, according to the Swedish government, a cheaper one. Holding someone in Sweden costs roughly €11,000 a month, compared to the €8,500 that will be paid for each additional spot in Estonia.
Estonia Has Empty Cells
In Estonia, the picture is the exact opposite. The country has nearly half its prison capacity sitting empty, giving it the second-lowest prison occupancy rate in the European Union, at around 58%.
After the crime wave that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, Estonia gradually brought down its crime rate and adopted a less punitive criminal justice model. In early 2026, it had just 1,618 prisoners, the lowest number since it regained independence in 1991.
Tallinn argues that housing Swedish prisoners will help maintain its facilities, bring in state revenue, and create jobs. In Tartu, a city of roughly 80,000 people, the plan is expected to bring 250 new prison staff positions.
The program applies exclusively to men convicted of serious offenses, such as homicide, armed robbery, fraud, and large-scale financial crimes. Women, minors, leaders of criminal organizations, radicalized prisoners, and those convicted of terrorism are excluded.
Estonia retains the right to reject anyone it considers too dangerous. Unlike a similar agreement between Denmark and Kosovo, the Swedish-Estonian program isn’t limited to foreign nationals: it can include both Swedish citizens and foreign nationals.
Prisoners will have basic equipment in their cells, access to electronic devices, and the ability to video call. Communication with Estonian prison staff will be in English. A central concern is maintaining family ties. Prisoners will be entitled to one visit of one to two hours each month, plus one multi-day visit every six months. It remains unclear, though, how many families will be able to afford regular trips to Estonia.
Human rights organizations warn that removing prisoners from their social environment makes reintegration harder. The consequences are especially serious for children, who effectively face an added punishment despite bearing no responsibility.
Questions also remain over which country would be held accountable in cases of mistreatment, suicide, death, or escape, even with relevant protocols built into the agreement.
A Broader European Practice
In 2010, Belgium became the first EU country to rent prison cells abroad, sending roughly 500 prisoners to the Netherlands. The arrangement was later deemed too costly and ended in 2016. Norway also transferred 650 prisoners to Dutch prisons between 2015 and 2018, paying a total of roughly €95 million. Authorities said the measure achieved its temporary purpose, though they chose not to renew the agreement.
A study published in 2023 concluded that such practices are, at best, short-term fixes. They don’t address the sentencing policies, longer prison terms, and legislative measures driving prison overcrowding in the first place.
Despite these reservations, Denmark has agreed to rent 300 spots in Kosovo for ten years, at a cost of €21 million a year. France, the UK, Finland, Belgium, and the Netherlands have also looked into similar arrangements.
The trend fits into a broader European pattern of “outsourcing.” Just as European governments pay third countries to hold back migrants or consider running return centers outside the EU, they’re now looking for states willing to take on part of their prison population.
The biggest risk is the “commodification of prisoners”: treating them as cost units to be moved wherever detention is cheapest. In that scenario, financial efficiency could end up outweighing rehabilitation and prisoners’ rights.
