Europe is struggling to accurately assess how much fuel it has as the Iran war disrupts global energy markets and drives up energy costs, exposing major gaps in the European Union’s ability to monitor supplies in real time.
According to POLITICO, fears over potential shortages are growing faster than the EU’s capacity to measure available stocks, leaving policymakers with only a partial picture of the continent’s energy security at a critical moment.
The crisis has intensified as the war in Iran pushes up Europe’s fossil fuel costs and threatens supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global artery for oil and gas shipments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the conflict is costing the EU nearly €500 million per day in higher energy expenses.
However, officials admit that beyond government-held reserves and limited industry disclosures, there is little comprehensive visibility into how much fuel is actually available across Europe at any given time.
“There are strategic reserves, but there’s not much visibility on how much has been drawn,” DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer told POLITICO during a recent briefing, highlighting uncertainty beyond short-term commitments into May and June.
EU authorities rely on Eurostat data, national coordination meetings, and occasional voluntary industry reporting to track supplies. While gas storage levels are relatively well monitored due to post-2022 rules requiring countries to fill reserves to 90% before winter, visibility into flows in and out of storage remains limited.
For refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, the situation is described by officials as significantly more opaque. Much of the data is held by privately owned companies that are not legally required to disclose their inventories.
A senior EU energy official told POLITICO there is “very limited market knowledge and data for gas and oil,” adding that “we know what they should have in stock. But what they have in any given moment is something we can’t really know.”
Another official said the lack of transparency from private firms makes it difficult to track real-time fuel availability, particularly in commercial storage sites, ports, and transport networks across the bloc.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which coordinated a large-scale oil release last month, also faces similar limitations due to incomplete data, according to a European Commission official.
In response to these gaps, the European Commission has announced plans for a new “Fuel Observatory” that would track production, imports, exports, and stock levels of transport fuels across the EU. However, officials say the project is still in early development.
“We will of course want to have a better overview of the fuel situation across the EU,” Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told POLITICO, adding that it is too early to define how the system will operate.
Some member states have pushed for stronger coordination, including real-time monitoring tools and even informal communication channels between governments and the Commission, as concerns grow over Europe’s ability to respond quickly to supply shocks.
Energy analysts also warn that low gas storage levels, combined with disrupted global trade flows and shifting tanker routes, could further complicate Europe’s energy outlook in the months ahead.
