The Greek economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in both 2026 and 2027, before easing slightly to 2% in 2028, according to forecasts from the Bank of Greece.
This growth trajectory will keep Greece ahead of the eurozone’s average projected expansion, maintaining a path of real income convergence.
The central bank also anticipates that inflation will fall to just above the 2% target zone starting next year. These projections were outlined in the Bank of Greece’s 2025 Interim Monetary Policy Report, presented on Monday to the Greek Parliament and the Cabinet by Governor Yiannis Stournaras.
The report highlights domestic consumption as the main driver of growth in the coming years, while investments and exports are expected to continue contributing positively. In the short term, investments are likely to benefit from the remaining funds available under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), only a third of which has so far reached the real economy.
Accordingly, the Bank of Greece expects investment growth to remain robust at 7.3% in 2025–26. Once the European Union’s NextGenerationEU recovery program concludes, however, investment growth is projected to moderate in 2027–28.
Inflation Outlook
The report notes that the external sector’s overall contribution to GDP will be slightly negative in the near term, due to strong investment activity driving faster import growth and the high import content of domestic consumption and goods exports.
Consumer prices, measured by the harmonized index (HICP), are expected to continue easing over the forecast period. Inflation is projected at 2.8% in 2025, reflecting persistent service price pressures—driven by rising wages and rents, strong tourism demand, and higher indirect taxes in hospitality and accommodation—as well as inflation in unprocessed food items.
Looking ahead, inflation is expected to fall sharply to 2.1% in 2026, remain largely unchanged at 2.2% in 2027, and then experience a one-off increase to 2.5% in 2028, as the expanded EU Emissions Trading System’s impact is incorporated into the energy component of the HICP.
