Moody’s is expected to deliver its latest assessment on the Greek economy on Friday, Sept 19., just days after DBRS chose not to upgrade Greece’s credit rating, with analysts widely anticipating Moody’s will also hold off on any change. The U.S. agency has traditionally taken a cautious stance—it was the last of the major houses to restore Greece to investment grade (Baa3) in March 2025, nearly 18 months after DBRS had moved first in September 2023.

Beyond today, three more reviews are scheduled before year-end: S&P on Oct. 17, Scope Ratings on Nov. 7, and Fitch on Nov. 14. Growth and inflation remain central concerns. While Greece has outperformed on many fiscal fronts, inflation continues to linger above the eurozone average.

Demographic Headwinds

Moody’s, however, has highlighted positively the government’s new tax package, announced Sept. 6. With a fiscal cost of 1.6 billion euros annually (0.6% of GDP), the plan will gradually take effect from 2026 and is seen as “credit positive.” Targeting families and young workers, it aims to address the long-term challenge of a shrinking and aging population.

The agency cautions that tax cuts won’t solve Greece’s demographic crisis, as job scarcity and high housing costs still hinder family growth and the return of young migrants. Fertility is just 1.3 children per woman (2023), while the EU expects the old-age dependency ratio to rise from 39% in 2022 to 61% by 2040.

Without a coherent national strategy, demographic decline could undermine growth, strain pensions, and erode fiscal stability.

Growth Slows Down

Meanwhile, economic momentum shows signs of cooling. GDP growth slowed to 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 2.2% in the first. Consumption contracted slightly, while exports face mounting pressure from a sluggish eurozone and potential trade frictions. UBS recently revised down its growth forecast for Greece, adding to concerns.

The government still targets 2.3% growth for 2025, but the mid-year average stands at just 1.95%. Analysts caution that once EU Recovery Fund resources run out in 2026, sustaining growth will become even more challenging.