Greece, like other EU countries, is expected to be significantly affected by the United States’ newly proposed tariffs, according to UBS. In its sensitivity analysis, the bank estimates that the effective tariff rate on Greek exports to the US would rise to roughly 20 – 23 percent.

UBS explains that, should the new duties ultimately be applied, the effect would immediately hit Greek industries exporting products such as pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs and other consumer goods. The combined direct and indirect impact is estimated at 10 basis points of GDP in 2025 and 30 basis points in 2026.

While Greece is not as dependent on the US as a trading partner compared with other countries, UBS notes that such an increase in tariffs could still lead to reduced exports and higher costs for Greek businesses—especially in sectors excluded from carve‑outs (such as pharmaceuticals).

If the tariff hikes are confirmed, the Greek economy could experience a prompt slowdown in its growth trajectory, as the higher duties would have a negative multiplier effect, dampening industrial output and external demand.

Sensitivity analysis of the proposed US tariffs

UBS conducted a sensitivity study on the proposed new US tariffs for emerging‑market economies in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Greece, South Africa and Kazakhstan). Two questions were examined: 1) what are the potential risks to GDP growth for 2025 and 2026, taking both direct and indirect effects into account? 2) how sensitive are these economies to a 10 percent increase in mutual tariffs?

At this stage UBS is not revising its GDP forecasts, given uncertainty over the final tariff levels while trade negotiations with the US are still under way.

However, the announced tariffs (30 percent for the European Union, 30 percent for South Africa and 25 percent for Kazakhstan) are close to those levied on “Liberation Day,” 2 April (31 percent and 27 percent, respectively, for the latter two). The newly proposed duties imply that effective tariffs on exports to the US would rise to around 30 percent for the CE3 countries, roughly 20 – 23 percent for Greece and South Africa, and about 10 percent for Kazakhstan.

Source: OT