Breast cancer is projected to become an even greater global health challenge, with over 3.5 million new cases expected annually by 2050, according to a study published in The Lancet Oncology. The research highlights rising incidence and mortality rates worldwide, with stark differences between high- and low-income countries.
The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators in collaboration with the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), analyzed cancer registry data from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and regions. It also included interviews with families and caregivers of women who died from breast cancer. The research projected future cases, deaths, and lost years of healthy life due to the disease.
In 2023, approximately 2.3 million new cases of breast cancer were recorded, with 73% occurring in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Deaths totaled around 764,000, with 39% occurring in lower-income regions. The disease remains the leading cause of premature death among women globally.
Disparities Between Countries and Regions
High-income countries such as Monaco, Andorra, France, Germany, and Ireland recorded the highest incidence rates, with over 100 cases per 100,000 women, while lower-income countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Mozambique had the lowest, at 13 or fewer per 100,000. Although incidence rates in high-income nations have stabilized, low-income regions have seen a sharp 147% increase since 1990.
Mortality trends show similar inequalities. Between 1990 and 2023, death rates in high-income countries dropped by 30%, while low-income countries saw almost a doubling in mortality, reflecting differences in early diagnosis, access to treatment, and healthcare infrastructure.
Age also plays a significant role. In 2023, women aged 55 and older were three times more likely to be diagnosed than those aged 20–54. However, cases among younger women have increased by 29% since 1990, possibly due to shifting risk patterns before and after menopause.
Europe and Greece in Focus
The study notes that breast cancer epidemiology varies across Europe. Western Europe, dominated by high-income countries, shows high incidence but declining mortality rates due to organized screening, early detection, and access to effective treatment. Central and Eastern Europe report lower incidence but slower reductions in mortality, highlighting uneven healthcare improvements.
Greece aligns more closely with Western Europe, showing relatively high incidence but a 20% reduction in mortality since 1990. Experts attribute this trend to early diagnosis and improved access to treatment, despite ongoing economic pressures on the healthcare system.
Preventable Risk Factors
Globally, over a quarter of lost healthy years are linked to six modifiable risk factors: high red meat consumption, smoking, elevated blood sugar, high body mass index, alcohol use, and low physical activity. This underscores the potential for prevention through lifestyle interventions and public health strategies.
The study concludes that achieving equitable survival outcomes will require comprehensive approaches combining prevention, robust healthcare systems capable of early detection and treatment, and universal access to affordable care. The researchers also emphasize the need for increased investment in cancer surveillance, particularly in resource-limited countries.
