Global food-system targets risk remaining on paper as 2030 approaches, with the way agricultural products are produced, distributed and consumed changing little. The result is higher food costs for consumers, greater pressure on farmers and a growing environmental burden.
Those are among the concerns raised by a new international assessment from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI), which found that the overwhelming majority of countries are not on track to meet internationally agreed food-system targets. Progress remains insufficient across areas ranging from climate impacts and food security to health, farmer incomes and governance.
The assessment, presented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), warns that countries are not moving quickly enough on most key indicators, while some are actually getting worse. It also stresses that the transition toward more sustainable and resilient food systems cannot happen without farmers at the center.
Governments have committed to a major transformation of food systems by 2030, but the assessment shows that progress is moving far more slowly than required.
A 197-Country Assessment
Published in Nature Food, the assessment is described as one of the most comprehensive efforts to date to measure not only the direction of food-system trends but also the distance countries still have to travel to meet international targets.
The analysis covers 197 countries and 44 indicators across five broad areas: diets, nutrition and health; environment and natural resources; production; income and inequalities; and governance and resilience.
“For the first time, the study goes beyond monitoring trends to assess progress and measure how food systems are actually performing and how much more improvement is needed to achieve globally established targets,” the assessment states.
Food-System Emissions Among Biggest Gaps
Of the 30 key indicators examined in terms of target achievement, only one — mobile phone subscriptions, used as an indirect indicator of connectivity and resilience — has already been achieved by a majority of countries.
Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems show one of the largest gaps relative to the target, with the global average about 75% away from the required level.
The picture becomes even more concerning when the environmental footprint of food production is considered. At the current rate of change, no country in the world is projected to meet the relevant target by 2030.
Food Security Remains a Weak Point
Food security is another major concern. Most regions of the world would need dramatic annual changes to achieve the 2030 targets.
In Africa, for example, improvements of between 15% and 20% every year across 23 different indicators would be needed to meet the targets.
In Asia, food insecurity would have to decline by more than 63% annually to reach the corresponding 2030 target.
Even high-income countries remain off track. In Europe, 19 indicators are still considered unlikely to meet their targets by 2030 based on the current trajectory.
Some Indicators Are Moving Backward
More concerning still, some indicators are not simply failing to improve quickly enough but are moving in the opposite direction.
These include civil society participation, government accountability, sales of ultra-processed foods, water withdrawals for agricultural use, pesticide use and emissions associated with food systems.
Signs of Progress
Despite the overall bleak picture for 2030, the assessment also identifies some encouraging developments.
For seven of the 33 indicators, at least one-third of countries are already on track to meet their 2030 target. At the same time, about half of all indicators are moving globally in the desired direction.
The assessment also proposes using regional and income-based benchmarks, allowing countries to evaluate their progress not only against a single global target but also against countries with similar economic and geographic circumstances.
The affordability of a healthy diet in Africa provides one example. While African countries are, on average, 58.7% away from the global benchmark, that gap falls to 32.2% when their performance is compared with the average of the top 20% of African countries.
The study ultimately emphasizes the urgent need to accelerate action across all indicators. Priority measures should focus on areas furthest off track, including food affordability, food insecurity, government effectiveness and food-system emissions.
Reducing food-system emissions will require annual declines of more than 60%, a challenge that the assessment says would remain difficult even by 2050.
