The FLAME Fire Meteorology Group of Greece’s National Observatory has issued a new seasonal assessment indicating an extreme wildfire risk in several key regions of the country, particularly in Attica, for the months of August and September 2025.
The findings are based on fire meteorological potential, which evaluates how favorable weather conditions are for the ignition and spread of wildfires. This estimate relies on the analysis of past climate trends and seasonal forecast data and is part of an ongoing pilot research project by the FLAME team at the National Observatory’s Meteo Unit.
What Is Fire Meteorological Potential?
Fire meteorological potential refers to the likelihood that atmospheric and weather conditions will support the outbreak and expansion of wildfires. It does not predict the occurrence of fires but helps identify regions that may face elevated risk based on climate patterns.
This assessment is not a substitute for official fire danger forecasts but aims to support fire prevention and preparedness by identifying areas with greater vulnerability to wildfires in the upcoming months.
July 2025: A Month of Heat and Drought
July 2025 saw significantly below-average rainfall, unusually high temperatures, and intense atmospheric dryness across Greece. These conditions have already worsened fire potential in several areas.
- High fire potential has been recorded in Attica, the Peloponnese, Western Greece, Crete, and the Southern Aegean.
- Moderate fire potential is noted in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Epirus, Central Greece, and the Ionian Islands.
- Low fire potential persists in Central and Western Macedonia, as well as in Thessaly.
August 2025 Forecast: Fire Risk Escalates
Seasonal weather forecasts point to even hotter temperatures and continued dry conditions for August. As a result, wildfire risk is expected to rise sharply:
- Extreme fire potential is forecast for Attica, the Peloponnese, and Western Greece.
- High fire potential is expected in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Epirus, the Northern Aegean, Central Greece, and the Ionian Islands.
- Moderate fire potential is projected for Central and Western Macedonia and Thessaly.
September 2025 Outlook: Critical Risk in the South
For September, elevated temperatures and moderate atmospheric dryness are expected to persist, continuing the dangerous trend:
- Extreme fire potential is forecast to expand to include the Southern Aegean and Crete.
- Attica, the Peloponnese, and Western Greece will continue to face extreme fire conditions.
- High fire potential will remain in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Epirus, the Northern Aegean, Central Greece, and the Ionian Islands.
As Greece enters the peak of the wildfire season, authorities and residents in high-risk regions are urged to remain vigilant, follow civil protection guidelines, and take proactive measures to prevent wildfires.
For updates and detailed maps, visit the Meteo Unit’s fire weather platform at fireweather.eu.
