Long-range weather forecasts suggest that August is likely to be warmer than average across southeastern Europe, including Greece, according to projections released by Meteo.
Based on 400 forecast scenarios, there is a 93% probability that the average temperature in the region will exceed seasonal norms, using the 1993–2016 period as the reference. The average projected temperature anomaly across all scenarios is +1.24°C.
According to the forecast, there is a 32% chance that average temperatures will be between 0°C and 1°C above normal, a 44% chance of temperatures 1°C to 2°C above average, and a 17% chance of anomalies exceeding 2°C. Only 7% of the scenarios indicate temperatures slightly below average, by up to 1°C.
Above-average temperatures expected across Europe
The outlook extends beyond Greece, with positive temperature anomalies forecast across the European continent. The largest deviations from seasonal averages are expected in central and eastern Europe, where temperatures could exceed normal levels by more than 2°C.
The projections are based on forecasts from eight international meteorological centers: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK’s Met Office (UKMO), Meteo-France, the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Germany’s DWD, Italy’s CMCC, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The data are provided through the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Long-range forecasts come with uncertainty
Meteo stresses that seasonal forecasts are intended to identify broader monthly and seasonal trends rather than predict daily weather conditions. Local weather systems and short-term atmospheric changes can lead to significant differences between actual daily temperatures and the projected monthly average.
The organization also reviewed the performance of its previous long-range forecast for June 2026. Southeastern Europe ultimately recorded an average temperature anomaly of +1.09°C, compared with the forecast average of +0.76°C issued in May. According to Meteo, the observed outcome fell within one of the more likely forecast scenarios, with a probability of 29%.
