Predicted Top 10 For Eurovision's 1st Semi-Final

Eurovision 2026 is ramping up, with its first semi-final mere hours away. The first semi-final begins at 21:00 CEST from Vienna’s Wiener Stadthalle, with 15 countries competing for 10 places in the Grand Final. Statistics from bookkeepers at Eurovision World are predicting Finland’s “Liekinheitin” will be crowned tonights winner, with Greece’s “Ferto” coming in at a close second.

Finnish act Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, performing the explosive entry “Liekinheitin”, have consistently topped the betting tables throughout Eurovision week. Bookmakers currently give Finland near-certain qualification odds, while several outlets have also placed the country as the frontrunner for Saturday’s Grand Final.

Greece has emerged as Finland’s closest challenger after strong rehearsal reactions and growing momentum among fans and punters alike. Following Monday night’s jury show, several betting markets shortened Greece’s odds significantly, with some analysts describing the race at the top as “tightening”.

Israel and Sweden are also considered among the safest qualification bets for tonight’s show, both maintaining strong positions across bookmaker rankings. Moldova, Denmark and Australia are meanwhile attracting attention as potential dark horses after positive rehearsal buzz.

At the other end of the table, Belgium, San Marino and Georgia currently appear most at risk of missing out on a place in Saturday’s Grand Final, with qualification odds drifting throughout the day.

Eurovision betting markets have historically proven relatively accurate when predicting qualifiers, although surprise eliminations remain one of the contest’s trademarks. Live vocals, staging and televote appeal are all expected to play a crucial role once the performances begin tonight.