Southeast Europe is expected to experience a warmer-than-usual September in 2025, according to long-term forecasts released in early August by Greek weather service Meteo.

Based on data from 400 prediction scenarios, 83% indicate that the month’s average temperature will exceed the seasonal norm (reference period: 1993–2016). The likelihood of a temperature anomaly between 0°C and +1°C is estimated at 42%, between +1°C and +2°C at 32%, and above +2°C at 9%. Conversely, the chances of cooler-than-average conditions are far lower, at 16% for slight drops and just 1% for more significant declines. The average projection across all scenarios points to an anomaly of +0.84°C.

The analysis covers the entire European continent, with the most notable positive deviations forecast for France and the Balkans, where average temperatures could surpass +1°C compared to the norm.

These projections draw on input from eight major forecasting centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy), and BOM (Australia), all provided via the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Experts emphasize that long-term forecasts carry significant uncertainty and aim to identify general monthly and seasonal trends rather than predict precise day-to-day conditions. Local and short-term variations may differ considerably from monthly averages.

Looking back, July 2025 saw a +1.61°C temperature anomaly in Southeast Europe, higher than the +1.04°C projected in June’s long-term outlook. This deviation matched the second most probable scenario from the earlier forecast, with an estimated likelihood of 41%.