The war in the Persian Gulf has already imposed an estimated €2.5 billion cost on the Greek economy—equivalent to roughly 0.9% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP)—with rising energy prices emerging as the most immediate and costly consequence.
According to estimates by the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), the economic impact is spreading beyond energy to economic growth, inflation, transportation and businesses, while the government budget is expected to face additional pressure as authorities finance new measures to shield households and companies from the energy shock.
A preliminary assessment by the European Commission covering the February-to-July period estimates the total economic burden across the European Union at €125 billion, or about 0.7% of EU GDP. Greece’s estimated losses are proportionally higher due to its dependence on imported energy and the significant role that transportation, tourism and shipping play in the economy.
International forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest the full economic impact has yet to emerge.
Energy Accounts for the Largest Share
Energy represents about 60% of the estimated damage, with the PCCI calculating an additional €1.5 billion in costs from more expensive imports of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), natural gas and electricity.
Oil markets have remained highly volatile. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel before falling about 6% to $90.60 following a temporary halt in hostilities between the United States and Iran. However, tensions persist, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
According to the IEA, oil exports from the Gulf recovered to 16.1 million barrels per day in June but remained well below the pre-war average of 24 million barrels per day, leaving nearly one-third of normal supply unavailable.
For Greece, higher energy prices mean more than expensive fuel at the pump. The country must spend more on importing the same volume of energy, worsening pressure on its external balance.
The European Commission forecasts Greece’s current account deficit will widen to 7.1% of GDP this year, up from 6% in 2025, while the IMF projects a deficit of 6.4%. Data from the Bank of Greece already show a larger deficit during the January-May period.
Growth Outlook Weakens
The PCCI estimates that slower economic activity will cost Greece about €600 million, reducing projected economic growth from around 2.2% to 1.8%.
That assessment broadly aligns with international forecasts. Both the European Commission and the IMF now expect Greece’s economy to expand by 1.8% in 2026, while the OECD projects 1.9%.
The IMF estimates the conflict has already reduced its previous Greek growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, citing weaker private consumption caused by higher energy costs and reduced tourism demand linked to softer international demand.
Although Greece is still expected to outperform the eurozone, economists warn that prolonged energy disruptions could erode that advantage.
Inflation Continues to Erode Purchasing Power
The PCCI estimates inflation will cost households and businesses an additional €900 million.
The European Commission forecasts Greek inflation at 3.7% in 2026, compared with 2.9% in 2025, while the OECD projects an even higher rate of 4.2%.
The ECB expects eurozone energy inflation to peak at 12.5% during the third quarter, noting that increases in crude oil and refined petroleum products are quickly passed on to fuel prices.
Higher fuel costs also raise transportation and production expenses, eventually feeding through to higher prices for food, manufactured goods and services. The European Commission expects underlying inflation in Greece, excluding energy and food, to remain elevated into 2027 as those secondary effects continue to spread.
Transportation and Supply Chains Under Pressure
The PCCI attributes another €400 million in losses to higher transportation and logistics costs.
The impact extends beyond fuel prices to include increased freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, shipping delays, longer delivery times and higher inventory requirements. Businesses must commit more working capital to move goods through disrupted supply chains, placing particular strain on smaller firms with limited financial flexibility.
The report also warns that rising interest rates could further increase financing costs for businesses and households.
Businesses and Public Finances Face Rising Costs
The chamber estimates approximately €500 million in additional fiscal and business costs, including fuel and energy subsidies, government support measures and increased liquidity needs.
The OECD notes that Greece introduced energy support measures beginning in March that are expected to remain in place through September, including diesel subsidies, targeted fuel assistance and support for low-income households.
However, every new support package increases pressure on public finances and competes with other planned government spending. At the same time, expectations of renewed interest rate increases in Europe have resurfaced as policymakers seek to prevent energy-driven inflation from becoming entrenched.
Several ECB policymakers have indicated that another rate increase in September may be necessary even if the broader economic outlook improves. Financial markets are already pricing in two additional rate hikes.
If that scenario materializes, the report warns, the conflict will open another front for the Greek economy, with higher borrowing costs adding to the burden already created by rising fuel and consumer prices.
The estimated €2.5 billion cost therefore represents a snapshot rather than the final economic toll. The IMF identifies a prolonged conflict as one of the most significant downside risks facing Greece, while the OECD’s baseline outlook assumes energy production and exports from the Middle East will begin normalizing during the third quarter.
With Brent crude swinging from above $100 to below $90 per barrel within days, the ultimate economic cost of the conflict remains highly uncertain.
