Greek economy: Record tourist arrivals and strong budget surpluses hide slow growth, widening inequality, and a political landscape stuck in neutral

This estimate is based on data available up to the first quarter of 2025 and therefore reflects the economic momentum before the recent escalation of the geopolitical crisis

Economic growth in Greece is projected to be 2.3% in 2025, according to the country’s central bank's latest Monetary Policy Report

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has sounded the alarm on growth prospects in the eurozone, including Greece, in a report warning that GDP growth could fall to just 0.5% by 2029 from 1.3% in 2023—unless labor productivity improves significantly. Regarding Greece and other peripheral countries in the eurozone, the study notes that in the case […]

The Greek economy is set to experience two more years of strong economic growth, according to Morgan Stanley, with the American-based multinational investment bank forecasting a GDP expansion of 2.2% in 2025—a slight deceleration of just 10 basis points compared to 2024. For 2026, Morgan Stanley projects a notable slowdown in the Greek economy, when […]

The Greek economy grew by 2.3% in 2024, according to initial estimates from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), with Q4 GDP running at 2.6%. According to the available seasonally adjusted data, Greece’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of the […]

The report suggests Greece’s economic expansion will be fueled primarily by investments, supported by projects financed through the EU Recovery Fund.

Furthermore, it is observed that during the period 2019–2023, the income gap between Greece and Europe widened even more.

Greece continues to outpace the EU average in terms of growth rates, despite signs of a slump. The outlook for 2024 and 2025, however, indicates a diminishing expansion in the face of rising national debt.

The corresponding forecasts by the Greek government are 2.2% for 2024 and 2.3% for 2025

Regarding monetary policy, the BoG notes that 2024 will see a marginal expansion as a result of investment spending from available EU funds.

As per inflation, Greece’s central bank expects a continued slowdown this year, with the inflation rate dropping to 3%

Based on the available seasonally adjusted data, the Gross Domestic Product in terms of volume increased by 1.1% in Q2 2024, compared to Q1 2024

In the section about Greece in its “Global Economics & Strategy” report, the firm highlights the primary fiscal surplus in the 2nd half of 2024 exceeded the €1.2 billion target set, reaching €2.9 billion