The Guardian has described Keir Starmer’s declining influence as having been fully on display during an awkward G7 summit, suggesting the gathering may have been one of his last appearances on the international stage. His team had focused on boosting his global profile, though President Trump appeared largely to ignore him, and Starmer himself, according to Financial Times correspondents reporting from Evian, seemed unbothered by the danger awaiting him back in London.
That danger has a name and a postcode: a by-election in Makerfield, a deindustrialized, predominantly white working-class constituency in Greater Manchester. The seat fell vacant after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned following the party’s dismal performance in May’s local elections, in what many read as a deliberate move to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to enter Westminster and, from there, potentially challenge for 10 Downing Street.
Burnham, 56, is Starmer’s most prominent internal critic and the most talked-about successor within the party. He held a five-point polling lead heading into the vote, though his win was far from guaranteed. Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration party Reform UK has built enormous support in what was once solid Labour territory, having roughly doubled its vote share in last month’s local elections. Adding further complexity, a new far-right outfit called Restore Britain, backed by billionaire Rupert Lowe and now in Elon Musk’s orbit, is expected to peel off some of Reform’s vote.
Confident of Victory
Senior Labour figures have rallied around Burnham’s campaign, and he has made no secret of his confidence. Associates told the Financial Times that he plans to wait at least 72 hours after winning before openly challenging Starmer’s leadership, saying he needs space to reach his own decision in his own time. “Andy isn’t bloodthirsty,” one source noted.
Starmer, speaking from Evian, struck a defiant tone. He said he had made absolutely clear from the outset that Labour won a significant mandate in 2024 and that if his leadership were challenged, he would fight for it. Speaking to Times Radio, he added he did not believe such a challenge should arise. He also appeared to leave the door open to offering Burnham a senior cabinet position, should Burnham choose not to move against him.
Yet the days at Downing Street now look numbered. A string of high-profile ministerial resignations and demands from nearly 100 Labour MPs that he step down have painted an increasingly bleak picture. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, speaking to the BBC on the eve of the vote, said he was ready to trigger an internal leadership process against Starmer the following week, calling for a swift end to what he described as the uncertainty and paralysis gripping the governing party. He suggested it would be better for Starmer to reach his own decision rather than forcing others to act.
The Institute for Government think tank warned that the worst-case scenario for the weeks ahead would be a prime minister clinging to power and actively trying to make things difficult for his successor, followed by an unprepared and uncoordinated team rushing in and stumbling through the earliest days of a new administration.
The think tank argued that Starmer’s best opportunity, for both himself and his political legacy, is to use the time between now and the Labour conference in late September to lay the groundwork for a smooth transition of power. That context is made more pressing by the announcement of a second EU-UK summit on July 22, aimed at resetting the post-Brexit relationship. Starmer posted on social media that his government was keeping its promise to put Britain at the heart of Europe, pledging to tackle the cost of living, strengthen employment, and create opportunities for young people.
