U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed a memorandum of understanding, a senior American official confirmed. The official verified that the agreement includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports, noting that shipping traffic in the region will increase significantly.
What About Lebanon and Hezbollah?
The agreement between the U.S. and Iran is expected to bring the war in Lebanon to an end, but it makes no mention of an Israeli withdrawal or of Tehran ceasing its support for Hezbollah, leaving many unresolved issues in Lebanon, according to analysts.
Lebanese authorities, who have been conducting separate bilateral negotiations with Israel under Washington’s pressure, were kept on the sidelines when this overnight agreement was announced.
The full contents of the deal have not been made public. Iran and Pakistan, the primary mediator in the talks, announced that it provides for an end to the fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in combat since March 2.
Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who serves as an intermediary between Hezbollah and the United States, emphasized that the deal includes “a binding clause” requiring “Israeli aggression against all of Lebanon to stop.”
Iran’s foreign minister said that the U.S. must guarantee that Israel commits to ending the war in its northern neighbor. Hezbollah, which “thanked Iran” for including Lebanon in the agreement, halted its attacks against Israel overnight, while Israel for its part had not carried out any strikes in the south by midday.
No Withdrawal Included
According to what has leaked from the deal, there is no provision for an Israeli withdrawal. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the country will keep its forces in Lebanon, as it has in Syria and Gaza, “for an indefinite period.”
“This agreement does not appear to bind Israel, which immediately made clear it is not a party to it. It is therefore very unlikely that there will be an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon,” assessed Karim Bitar, who teaches at Sciences Po Paris.
The Israeli military launched a ground operation and pushed deep into Lebanese territory, crossing the Litani River in some areas, approximately 30 kilometers from the border, according to a Western military source who requested anonymity. The source noted that “tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers” are now deployed in the south, where they continue to hold fixed positions. “This is the largest invasion since their withdrawal in 2000,” the source added, noting that Hezbollah maintains a presence in the occupied areas.
What Happens to Hezbollah?
While the U.S. has been pressing Lebanese authorities for months to disarm Hezbollah, the agreement makes no prior commitment about what will happen with Iran-linked groups. Karim Bitar assessed that “Iran does not appear to have committed to stopping its support and funding for Hezbollah,” while military expert Riad Kahwaji said “it is certain that Hezbollah will not agree to surrender its weapons.” He fears there could be “increased instability in Lebanon,” as Hezbollah believes, through Iran, that it has emerged victorious and will try to impose its own terms on the authorities.
What About the Bilateral Negotiations?
Lebanon and Israel have been negotiating since April under Washington’s auspices, as the U.S. sought to separate the Lebanese and Iranian fronts. Those talks were rejected by Hezbollah and failed to end the war, which has already claimed more than 3,700 lives and displaced over one million people in Lebanon.
A new round of two-track negotiations, covering both political and military tracks, is scheduled to begin on June 22 in Washington. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated that his government will “intensify efforts during the Washington talks to achieve a full Israeli withdrawal.”
Analysts, however, are skeptical about the usefulness of that process, given that official Lebanon was bypassed entirely when the overall agreement was announced. For Bitar, Lebanon risks “once again being the sacrificial victim paying simultaneously for American amateurism, Iranian cynicism, Israeli hubris and, to be frank, the absence of a clear strategy from its own political class.”
